Facing the need to make a budget deal with Republicans in Congress to avoid a massive automatic austerity program, President Obama, in the eyes of observers from both parties, seems to hold all the cards: In the absence of a compromise on taxes, rates will rise in January, improving the bargaining position of a president largely comfortable with higher revenues. But Bloomberg's Josh Barro argues that this isn't as it seems, and that as long as Republicans are willing to allow a recession before they yield on tax rates, they can force an extension of today's historically low tax rates on the wealthy.