Though we remain wary of oracles and fortune-tellers, a new report by PwC highlights some of the profound global economic shifts we at Quartz believe are well underway.
The sages at PwC forecast that between now and 2050:
- The fastest growing economy will be… Nigeria. Followed by Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. Chinese growth will slow down due to a rapidly aging population and rising labor costs.
“Move over, BRICS. You’re not the fastest anymore.”
- China will become Number One by 2017, even earlier than the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ current prediction of 2019
- The UK will drop out of the world’s top 10 economies, sliding to 11th place, (after France.) Japan, according to the report, will move from fourth to fifth place.
- The size of today’s top seven emerging economies, taken as a block, will be 50% greater than that of today’s top seven developed economies. In terms of GDP per capita, however, the economic picture in 2050 won’t be drastically different from the situation today, with the UK coming in fourth, after the US, Canada, and France.
As a bloc, today’s emerging economies will dwarf developed ones.
- Many of the world’s 50 richest cities, by GDP, will be in Asia. Half of Europe’s top richest cities will drop off that list. In absolute terms, the world’s economic center of gravity is irreversibly shifting East.
- Global growth will slow down, progressing at just over 3% per year, from the current rate of 5% since 1950. Still, that leaves the world’s economy primed to double in size around 2032, and again by 2050.