Skip to navigationSkip to content

Bernie Sanders is seen as the most likely Democratic nominee to challenge Trump in 2020

Reuters/Mark Kauzlarich
Bernie Sanders, and American voters, have some big decisions to make in the coming years.
  • John Detrixhe
By John Detrixhe

Future of finance reporter

Published This article is more than 2 years old.

The next US presidential election is a smidge less than three years away, yet just about everyone is wondering who the Democrats could rally behind to challenge Donald Trump in 2020. So far, senator Bernie Sanders is in the lead, according to PredictIt, a political prediction stock market.

Candidates begin laying the groundwork for a presidential run years in advance—the beginning of the next campaign seemingly begins when the last one ends. And Trump, an unconventional Republican whose time in office has been beset by turmoil (paywall), has inspired a sense of urgency among those who oppose him. Even so, no clear leader for the Democratic party has emerged since the end of Barack Obama’s second term and Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016.

RankNamePrice (cents)
1Bernie Sanders21
2Kamala Harris17
3Elizabeth Warren15
4Kirsten Gillibrand14
5Joe Biden13
6Cory Booker11
7Amy Klobuchar8
8Andrew Cuomo7
9Mark Zuckerberg4
10Tim Kaine2
Source:PredictItDec. 29, 2017

PredictIt translates prediction market data into US cents, with the highest price signalling the most likely outcome at a particular time. Sanders, who challenged Clinton for the nomination in 2016, is seen as the likely nominee at 21 cents a share. California senator Kamala Harris is next at 17 cents, followed by Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren at 15 cents.

Three of the top-five potential candidates are women —New York senator Kirsten Gillibrand comes in fourth at 14 cents, just ahead of former vice president Joe Biden at 13 cents.

At the bottom of the top-10 are Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Tim Kaine, the Virginia senator who was Clinton’s running mate, at 4 cents and 2 cents, respectively.

📬 Kick off each morning with coffee and the Daily Brief (BYO coffee).

By providing your email, you agree to the Quartz Privacy Policy.