The US is so polarized that people hardly live in the same country any more. Beyond differing political views, they don’t watch the same TV shows, buy the same brands, or read the same media.
Right?
Wrong, and there is research to prove it. University of Chicago economists Marianne Bertrand and Emir Kamenica have produced a deeply researched study on whether people in the US have diverged culturally over the past half century. They haven’t, really.
Using survey data on the brands Americans buy, the beliefs they hold, the movies and TV they watch, and the ways they spend their time, the researchers tested how well they can predict someone’s income, race, and political views (pdf). Specifically, they were interested in whether it is easier to use this data to make predictions today than it was in decades past. If it is easier, they say, it means that Americans of different socioeconomic groups have grown further apart when it comes to how they experience the world.
Bertrand and Kamenica find that Americans are quite different, but that gulf is not widening. Knowing the TV shows someone watches or the shampoo they prefer tells you no more about their income or race than it used to. One exception is that cultural beliefs and attitudes—like whether premarital sex is wrong or whether the US is spending enough on defense—now better predict someone’s politics than in the past.
It’s significant and topical research, to be sure, but it’s also one of the more fun economics papers you will read. Beyond the usual methodological details, the authors have listed the products, opinions, and media that best predict someone’s background. It is funny, surprising, and sometimes sad. Here are some of our favorite nuggets from the research…
💰 Watching these TV shows was the most predictive of a high income in 2016*
TV shows/events | Percent accuracy** |
---|---|
The Super Bowl | 57.1 |
Love It Or List It | 55.9 |
Property Brothers | 55.7 |
House Hunters | 55.5 |
The Academy Awards | 55.3 |
NCAA Men’s Final Four | 54.9 |
Flip or Flop | 54.9 |
The Masters | 54.8 |
Saturday Night Live Specials | 54.3 |
The Grammy Awards | 53.9 |
*High income is defined as being in the top 25% of Americans. For this analysis, the researchers only tried to predict if someone was in the top 25% or bottom 25%—those in the middle 50% were left out.
** In the this table and the ones following, percent accuracy represents the accuracy with which you could predict someone belonging to a group only knowing this one piece of information and nothing else.
💰 Using these brands was the most predictive of a high income in 1992 and 2016
1992 | Percent accuracy | 2016 | Percent accuracy |
---|---|---|---|
Grey Poupon Dijon mustard | 62.2 | iPhone | 69.1 |
Kodak film | 61.6 | iPad | 66.9 |
Thomas’s English muffin | 61.5 | Verizon Wireless | 61 |
Cascade-Lemon dish detergent | 59.0 | Android phone | 59.5 |
Scotch Magic tape | 58.7 | Kikkoman soy sauce | 59 |
Cut-Rite waxed paper | 57.7 | HP printer/fax machine | 58.2 |
Philadelphia cream cheese | 57.7 | AT&T cellular network | 58.1 |
Kikkoman soy sauce | 57.5 | Samsung TV set | 58 |
Hellmann’s mayonnaise | 57.4 | Cascade Complete dish detergent | 57.6 |
Sylvania TV set | 57.4 | Ziploc plastic bags | 57.5 |
🙋♂️ Seeing or not seeing these movies was the most predictive of being male in 1998, 2007, and 2016
1998 | Percent accuracy | 2007 | Percent accuracy | 2016 | Percent accuracy |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Didn’t see First Wives Club | 56.0 | Saw King Kong | 52.4 | Saw John Wick | 52.7 |
Didn’t see The Mirror Has Two Faces | 54.0 | Saw Transporter 2 | 52.3 | Saw Interstellar | 52.6 |
Didn’t see The Preacher’s Wife | 53.7 | Saw Didn’t see In Her Shoes | 52.3 | Saw Fury | 52.2 |
Didn’t see Dalmatians | 53.6 | Saw Underworld: Evolution | 52.1 | Didn’t see Gone Girl | 51.9 |
Didn’t see One Fine Day | 53.4 | Saw X-Men: The Last Stand | 51.9 | Didn’t see Annie | 51.9 |
Didn’t see My Best Friend’s Wedding | 53.0 | Saw The Legend of Zorro | 51.8 | Saw The Hobbit | 51.8 |
Didn’t see Jerry Maguire | 53.0 | Saw A History of Violence | 51..7 | Saw Guardian of the Galaxy | 51.8 |
Didn’t see Fly Away Home | 53.0 | Saw Firewall | 51.7 | Saw The Equalizer | 51.7 |
Didn’t see The English Patient | 52.0 | Saw Mission Impossible 3 | 51.6 | Didn’t see Into the Woods | 51.7 |
Didn’t see Michael | 52.0 | Didn’t see The Family Stone | 51.6 | Saw Mad Max | 51.5 |
🙋♂️ These cultural traits, actions, or beliefs were the most predictive of being male in 2016
Cultural trait, action, or belief | Percent accuracy |
---|---|
Seen X-rated movie in last year | 61.8 |
Not afraid to walk at night | 60.2 |
Porn should not be illegal to all | 57.9 |
Too little spending on space exploration | 57.8 |
Not confident in banks | 57 |
Trusts people | 57.5 |
Approve of police striking citizens | 55.8 |
Spending on health care is adequate | 55.6 |
Own pistol/revolver in home | 55.4 |
Favor gun permits | 55.4 |
👨🏻 These TV shows and brands were the most predictive of being white in 2016
TV Shows | Percent accuracy | Brands | Percent accuracy |
---|---|---|---|
Saw Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer | 55.8 | Verizon Wireless | 60.2 |
Saw Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade | 55.6 | Thomas’ English muffin | 58.6 |
Saw American Pickers | 55.5 | Shout laundry pre-treatment | 56.8 |
Saw The Big Bang Theory | 54.8 | Sweet Baby Ray’s barbeque sauce | 56.5 |
Saw How the Grinch Stole Christmas | 54.6 | Vlasic pickles | 56.4 |
Saw Saturday Night Live Specials | 54.6 | Arm & Hammer baking soda | 56 |
Saw Dick Clark’s New Year Rockin’ Eve | 54.3 | Scotch transparent tape | 55.9 |
Saw Charlie Brown Specials | 54.2 | French’s Classic Yellow mustard | 55.8 |
Didn’t see the NBA All Star Game | 54.2 | Windex glass/sruface cleaner | 55.8 |
Saw the Kentucky Derby | 54.1 | Stove top stuffing mix | 55.8 |
⬅ These magazines or cultural actions were the most predictive of being liberal in 2009
Magazine | Percent accuracy | Actions | Percent accuracy |
---|---|---|---|
Read Vanity Fair | 54.9 | Not own a fishing rod | 56.9 |
Read Rolling Stone | 54.6 | Not own fishing lures/hooks | 56.8 |
Read Vogue | 54.0 | Not own a fishing reel | 56.7 |
Read The New Yorker | 53.8 | Own any vehicle | 56.5 |
Didn’t read Reader’s Digest | 53.0 | Didn’t use frozen bread/dough | 56.3 |
Didn’t read Field & Stream | 52.9 | Drank any alcoholic beverage | 56.2 |
Read Time | 52.9 | Bought a novel | 56.2 |
Read People | 52.8 | Didn’t use ranch salad dressing | 56.2 |
Read Glamour | 52.7 | Didn’t use disposable plates | 56 |
Read O, The Oprah Magazine | 52.7 | Not own other fishing equipments | 55.8 |