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"I Voted / Yo Vote" stickers sit on a table to be given to people after they cast their votes in the 2018 U.S. midterm election in Georgia
Reuters/Leah Millis
First-time voters are doing peachy.
AN ELECTION OF FIRSTS

More than half a million “nonvoters” in Georgia and Texas actually voted early this year

Ana Campoy
By Ana Campoy

Latin America reporter

Democrats in reliably conservative Georgia and Texas tried a new tack this year: they bet on nonvoters.

The strategy seems to be paying off. The number of first-time voters who cast an early ballot in those states grew by more than 300% compared to turnout in the 2014 midterm elections, according to data compiled by Democratic political consulting firm TargetSmart. That’s nearly 600,000 voters.

Early voting figures are fairly limited as predictors of the final tally. While they can serve as a gauge for voter excitement, they don’t spell out party affiliation. Still, the big jump in newbie voters, especially young people and minorities, is a hopeful sign for Democratic candidates in close races in Texas and Georgia, states where those groups don’t generally vote in big numbers.

The big question now is whether the boost will be enough for overcome regular Republican voters.

Voting history

TargetSmart, which collects early data from local elections offices, breaks it down by how often people vote. Here’s the increase in voters compared to turnout in the 2014 midterm elections.

Type of voterGeorgia (% increase from 2014)Texas (% increase from 2014)
Super voter56.468.5
Frequent voter139.6188.9
Infrequent voter284.9305.3
Never voted327.1306.6

While new voters showed up at much higher rates than their more experienced counterparts, they make a smaller share of the electorate.

Type of voterGeorgia (% of registered/active voters)Texas (% or registered/active voters)
Super voter10.613.3
Frequent voter13.917.9
Infrequent voter6.17.2
Never voted1.83.4

Courting minorities and young voters

Bringing out the minority vote was a big challenge for Democratic candidates like Texas’s Beto O’Rourke, who’s running for the US Senate, and Stacey Abrams, who’s vying for the Georgia’s Governor’s mansion. Both states have large shares of Hispanic and black populations, which usually vote at lower rates than Americans as a whole.

The early voting data show that minorities did turn out, whether lured by Democratic candidates or other reasons. Younger voters, too, went to the polls in bigger numbers than in the past midterm elections.

Here’s the breakdown of gains vs. 2014 by age, and race and ethnicity:

Age/Race or ethnicityGeorgia (% increase from 2014)Texas (% increase from 2014)
18-29361.7465.3
30-39243.6297.7
40-49153.1201.9
50-6499.9122.1
65+77.486.8
Black112.199.4
Asian584.5381.3
White117.7134.7
Hispanic529.4237.6

Despite increased participation, minorities and people under 40 years old are still outnumbered by whites and middle-aged Americans.

Age/Race or ethnicityGeorgia (% of registered/active voters)Texas (% or registered/active voters)
18-293.44.8
30-393.75.4
40-495.26.5
50-6410.412.7
65+9.812.4
Black10.52.9
Asian0.50.8
White20.329.9
Hispanic3.96.8

Less excitement in Florida

Democrats faced similar odds in the Sunshine State as in Georgia and Texas. Donald Trump won Florida in 2016, but not by a wide margin. Key races there are also close, including for the US Senate and the Governor’s mansion, polls show. The state also has big minority populations.

Like O’Rourke and Abrams, Andrew Gillum, Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Florida, also went after new voters and minorities. But participation among those groups didn’t expand by as much as in the other two states. (One reason, perhaps, is that Floridians already voted at much higher rates than Texans and Georgians.)

Type of voter% increase compared to 2014% of registered/active voters
18-29 years old148.03
30-39 years old132.63.5
40-49 years old85.94.5
50-64 years old54.011.5
65+ years old44.015.8
Black87.25.26
Asian132.40.7
White48.426.3
Hispanic121.95.1
Super voter33.812.7
Frequent voter78.216.9
Infrequent voter109.97.4
Never voted20.41.3

If early voting does mirror early voting, and proves partisanship models right, Democrats across the country will likely be poring over get-out-the-vote efforts in those three states for lessons for future elections.

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