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BETTING ODDS

There is now a 40% chance of Brexit being scrapped, says Goldman Sachs

EU supporters, calling on the government to give Britons a vote on the final Brexit deal, participate in the 'People's Vote' march in central London, Britain March 23, 2019.
REUTERS/Henry Nicholls
Anti-Brexit demonstrators marching in London on March 23.
By Steve Mollman
Published Last updated This article is more than 2 years old.

All the Brexit drama could, in the end, prove to be much ado about nothing. In light of the UK Parliament shooting down prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal for a third time Friday (March 29), investment bank Goldman Sachs now puts the odds of Brexit not happening at all at 40%, up from 35%.

In a note to clients, the bank said it still thinks the more likely scenario is Parliament eventually approving a modified version of the UK’s withdrawal agreement with the European Union, Bloomberg reports (paywall). But it’s lowered the odds of that happening from 50% to 45%. And it sees the timing of that process being longer now, skewed more toward an Article 50 extension of over a year. The longer the extension, “the greater the likelihood of no Brexit at all,” noted analyst Adrian Paul.

Meanwhile the bank put the odds of a no-deal Brexit at just 15%.

Goldman Sachs, like many others, has been adjusting its expectations as the Brexit drama has unfolded. In late January, it lowered the odds of a Brexit cancellation from 40% to 35%. It also said there was a 50% chance of Brexit being delayed from its March 29 deadline. The current deadline is, for now, April 12.

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