What to watch for today
The Bank of Japan holds the course. The central bank’s audacious experiment in fighting Japan’s endemic inflation has led to a five-year high of inflation expectations, but the bond markets are still skeptical (paywall). Nonetheless, economists don’t expect the bank to further expand its stimulus just yet.
Syrian peace talks begin in Geneva. Delegates from the Assad regime and rebel forces are hosted by the UN, the US and Russia in an attempt to end to the country’s civil war, but Iran won’t be at the table after UN secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon withdrew the invitation under US pressure—which is probably a mistake.
Did Netflix grow? The video streaming service is expected to report higher earnings, but as always, analysts will pay more attention to how many subscribers it added in the fourth quarter. (If the Onion is any guide, Netflix might also want to think about improving its film catalog.)
Ebay’s triumph over a short holiday. Despite worse than expected sales in the fourth quarter, analysts still predict earnings will grow at the online marketplace and payments company.
While you were sleeping
The CEO of the world’s largest bond fund stepped down. PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian announced a surprise decision to leave the business in March, which is sure to re-inflate rumors about the Egyptian-American’s political ambitions. He’s staying on at the fund’s parent company, financial-services giant Allianz.
The IMF got more optimistic. The group’s World Economic Outlookforecast faster global growth (pdf) of 3.7% in 2014, rising to 3.9% in 2015. But it warned that low inflation expectations in advanced economies and financial volatility in emerging markets could throw a wrench in the works.
Verizon reported a $5 billion profit. The largest US telecom had a solid quarter, and has room to grow: 30% of its customers still aren’t using smartphones.
Unilever pleased the markets. The giant consumer-goods firm faces slowing sales growth, but still beat expectations thanks in part to the wild success of its TRESemmé hair care products in Brazil.
JP Morgan pulled out of another Chinese IPO. The bank, currently under investigation for ethically-questionable hiring practices, employs the daughter of the chairman of Tianhe Chemicals, which plans to list in Hong Kong this year. It’s the second IPO the bank has dropped over potential conflicts of interest.
Scientists reported 2013 was the fourth-hottest year on record. Global warming: Still a thing.
Quartz obsession interlude
Tim Fernholz on Shape Security, a start-up looking to change the economics of hacking. ”Shape Shifter has been in trials with companies like StubHub, the online ticket re-seller, and Citigroup, whose head of security praised it for ‘turn[ing] the cost equation back around in the defender’s favor.’ … The idea is to make hacking a human endeavor again: If bots won’t work, hackers will face more time and expense to do the dirty work themselves, or hire others to do it for them.” Read more here.
Matters of debate
Keep your CEO succession candidates a secret. And other ways not to screw up a corporate leadership transition.
Janet Yellen’s Fed should ignore unemployment. It’s the best way to create more jobs.
Overwork is bad for productivity. Once, high earners worked fewer hours than low earners, but the rise of knowledge work has flipped that norm, with bad results.
Maybe workers should take turns being the CEO. Or at least, CEOs should stop being CEO from time to time.
Marx is back. Why the class struggle is globally relevant again.
EU regulators have made the cinnamon roll illegal in Denmark. Anything but the kanelsnegels!
Bill Gates says there will be no poor countries by 2035. So that’s settled, then.
Russia and Japan may finally stop fighting World War II. At least one Asian island dispute could be resolved.
Warren Buffet will give you $1 billion if you correctly forecast the US collegiate basketball tournament. 1 in 9.2 quintillion? I’ll take those odds.