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76% of online shopping in the US this holiday season will be spent on 1% of products

A young girl lies on a couch as the woman she was accompanying checks out shoes while shopping on Black Friday at the Garden State Plaza mall Friday, Nov. 28, 2014, in Paramus, N.J. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
AP Photo/Julio Cortez
Wiped out.
By Alice Truong

Deputy editor

Published Last updated on This article is more than 2 years old.

Brace your wallet for another competitive season of deal snagging. The holiday shopping season is almost upon us, and if Adobe’s forecast is anything to go by, you can expect it to be even crazier than last year.

It predicts that online sales for Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday—the start of holiday shopping in the US—will total $7.2 billion this year, up 13% from the $6.4 billion Americans spent in 2014.

And here’s an interesting nugget in the report: Of all dollars devoted to online holiday shopping, 76% will be spent on a mere 1% of products. Most of those, says Adobe, which analyzed an inventory of 55 million products to arrive at its forecast, will be electronics (60%), followed by gift cards (10%). Less expensive items fill out the remainder.

“Even if it’s just 1%, it still represents [hundreds of] thousands of products so it’s hard to bucket them all,” a representative tells Quartz.

The firm’s analysis of social media data points to wearables, TV players, game consoles, video games, tablets, and TVs as the top electronic purchases this season.

We can also expect more people to shop from the dinner table on Thanksgiving. Adobe predicts 51% of visits to shopping sites to come from mobile, surpassing desktop for the first time during this holiday. With more retailers hoping to get a jump start on their competitors, Thanksgiving Day is projected to see the biggest increase in sales, up 18% from 2014, compared with Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

All those deals will mean more competition, which means having to act quick—because by the time Cyber Monday rolls around, out-of-stock inventory will peak. The firm predicts incidents where customers find an item is out of stock will increase 116% on Cyber Monday.

Happy hunting.

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