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PLACE YOUR BETS

Donald Trump has the same odds of winning as Jon Snow ruling Westeros, according to betting markets

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Winter is coming.
  • Gwynn Guilford
By Gwynn Guilford

Reporter

Published This article is more than 2 years old.

Hillary Clinton’s supporters are fretting about the Democratic nominee’s deteriorating chances of beating Donald Trump for the US presidency. Still, she remains the odds-on favorite, with a 75% probability of victory, according to FiveThirty Eight’s polls-only model. Two weeks ago, it was 88%.

Online betting markets give Clinton sightly longer odds. While the “wisdom of crowds” reflected in betting markets and bookies’ hunches doesn’t always turn out to be that wise, they factor in more information than polls alone (for better or worse). British bookies gave Brexit a 25% chance on the eve of the vote—the same as Trump today—and we all know how that turned out.

It can be tough to internalize these probabilities, particularly with such an emotionally charged contest. For some perspective, here are events with roughly similar odds to the chances of a Trump victory, according to online betting markets…

More into pop culture than sports? The bookies give Trump about the same odds of victory as…

  • Jon Snow ruling Westeros at the end of Game of Thrones
  • Tom Hardy being named the next James Bond
  • Taylor Swift winning “Best Album” at the 2017 Grammy Awards

Or for something completely different, the likelihood of a Trump win is also about the same as…

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