DOUBLE TROUBLE

The Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP growth of 2%—a far cry from Trump’s plans for 4%

Obsession
2016
Obsession
2016

For the next three years, at least, the Federal Reserve is forecasting (pdf) the US economy to grow at about 2% each year. That has prompted the central bank, after years of hefty monetary stimulus, to raise interest rates and hint at three more increases next year.

It’s a fairly lackluster view of the future, which doesn’t bode well for president-elect Donald Trump. He campaigned on a zealous promise to “boost growth to 3.5% per year on average, with the potential to reach a 4% growth rate.”

By contrast, none of the Fed officials expects the US economy to get anywhere close to his plans.

Fed-GDP-projections-dec-2016

Those plans include ambitious, if quizzical, infrastructure spending, corporate tax cuts, and a rollback of all manner of regulations, which have left economists and businesses perplexed about the economy’s direction. Yellen, too, acknowledged that there’s “considerable uncertainty” about how economic policies may change. For his part, Trump may find it hard to stick with double economists’ expectations.

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