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Live Updates: Forecasting the race for the House

By FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 House electionsRead full story


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  • Max Lockie
    Max LockiePlatform Editor at Quartz

    Still plenty of time to go, but with a 3 in 4 chance that Democrats win the house -- it's time to start gaming out what a divided government under President Trump might look like.

  • Paul Prestigiacomo
    Paul Prestigiacomo

    The odds for Hillary winning the White House were greater from this lot, if I remember correctly.

  • Walter Lauinger
    Walter Lauinger

    Hillary believed that too. Left and their media friends still seem to think the American people are stupid.

  • Gary Riger
    Gary RigerFounder & CEO at BKLYN.CO

    Reading these comments, it's amazing how much we have lost trust in polling data, and rightfully so. I guess I'll have to wait until election day to see results, until then it's all guesswork.

  • Randy Andrews
    Randy Andrews

    Isn’t this the same website that predicted Trump had almost no chance of winning?

  • Until I know the focus group and have vet the organization conducting the pole...this data remains without value nor purpose.

  • David Veenbaas
    David Veenbaas

    Fake news.

  • James Randorff
    James RandorffMusician, Instructor at US Navy

    Here's hoping that all voters know better than to take it as a given victory this time around.

  • Jose Soler
    Jose Soler

    They said Clinton had a 90% chance of winning in 2016. Go figure!

  • Tj Brown
    Tj BrownPersonal training at Body sculpting by Landry

    This is the backlash of Trumps rhetoric.

  • Matthew  Boykin
    Matthew Boykinengineer

    ... and Hilliary Clinton is president of the United States

  • Jon Harshey
    Jon Harshey

    Good reminder: a common confounding problem in a single race can cause the massive problem in FiveThirtyEight’s predictions for the 2016 race. When those potential issues are distributed amongst 430 or so separate events, your hiccups have less of an overall impact and tend to even out in both directions. Not to mention, forgetting the 2016 presidential election, FiveThirtyEight has a great record—that’s why they’re well-known and respected.

  • Bill Stagemeyer
    Bill Stagemeyer

    I wasn’t polled... my approval of our President coming from a state that obama depressed in his war on energy is 98% approval, loving the tax cut and great wage increase. I Love watching Trump play with the media like a cat and mouse. Watching Trump is like watching a great chess match only Trump is five moves ahead of all opponents he is playing... this has been a great 198 days as liberal socialist meltdown and the media lies trying to convince the citizens that Trump is a racist and incompetent....Trump just keeps winning...

  • Bruce Hertz
    Bruce Hertz

    Is the general public ready to be good comrads? The mid-terms will be telling for sure...

  • Addison Strickler
    Addison Strickler

    How did 538 fare November 2016? If there were factors unexplained and/or unknown at the time, which in hindsight rationalized the result, are they now included in the Silver and Company 2018 projection?

  • Louis Eaccarino
    Louis Eaccarino


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