Live Updates: Forecasting the race for the House
FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 House electionsRead full story
Still plenty of time to go, but with a 3 in 4 chance that Democrats win the house -- it's time to start gaming out what a divided government under President Trump might look like.
The odds for Hillary winning the White House were greater from this lot, if I remember correctly.
Hillary believed that too. Left and their media friends still seem to think the American people are stupid.
Reading these comments, it's amazing how much we have lost trust in polling data, and rightfully so. I guess I'll have to wait until election day to see results, until then it's all guesswork.
Isn’t this the same website that predicted Trump had almost no chance of winning?
Until I know the focus group and have vet the organization conducting the pole...this data remains without value nor purpose.
Here's hoping that all voters know better than to take it as a given victory this time around.
They said Clinton had a 90% chance of winning in 2016. Go figure!
This is the backlash of Trumps rhetoric.
... and Hilliary Clinton is president of the United States
Good reminder: a common confounding problem in a single race can cause the massive problem in FiveThirtyEight’s predictions for the 2016 race. When those potential issues are distributed amongst 430 or so separate events, your hiccups have less of an overall impact and tend to even out in both directions. Not to mention, forgetting the 2016 presidential election, FiveThirtyEight has a great record—that’s why they’re well-known and respected.
I wasn’t polled... my approval of our President coming from a state that obama depressed in his war on energy is 98% approval, loving the tax cut and great wage increase. I Love watching Trump play with the media like a cat and mouse. Watching Trump is like watching a great chess match only Trump is five moves ahead of all opponents he is playing... this has been a great 198 days as liberal socialist meltdown and the media lies trying to convince the citizens that Trump is a racist and incompetent....Trump just keeps winning...
Is the general public ready to be good comrads? The mid-terms will be telling for sure...
How did 538 fare November 2016? If there were factors unexplained and/or unknown at the time, which in hindsight rationalized the result, are they now included in the Silver and Company 2018 projection?
A community of leaders, subject matter experts, and curious minds bringing nuance back to how we talk about the news.
No content overload: our editors will curate the most notable and discussion-worthy pieces for you every day.
Don’t just read the story, tell it: contribute your ideas and experience to the dialogue.