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We may have reached "peak China"

By Axios

After years of forecasts of a Chinese juggernaut, the nation faces a trade war, global pushback and accusationsRead full story

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  • Some top strategists are talking about 'Peak China.' The moment President Xi Jin Ping was hailed as the star at Davos in 2017 I said that China's stardom had momentarily peaked. My rationale? First, it was about to be hit by a backlash from the US on trade and perhaps other allies. Second, it is too

    Some top strategists are talking about 'Peak China.' The moment President Xi Jin Ping was hailed as the star at Davos in 2017 I said that China's stardom had momentarily peaked. My rationale? First, it was about to be hit by a backlash from the US on trade and perhaps other allies. Second, it is too susceptible to global trade which will eventually stall with the next recession. Third, decentralised technologies such as 3D printing might prove to undermine one of the workshops of the world, China. Already SE Asia was becoming a new workshop as costs were cheaper there than China.

    Actually I've been highlighting these risks since 2011or so. But it was obviously going to kick in with the new US Presidency.

    That said. I've not written China off at all! Every emerging power has set backs. Nothing happens Inna straight line. I'm excited by the possibility of a genuine multipolar world. We will have Russia, China, Turkey, Iran amongst others balancing out the power on the world stage. That is until we can move away from the Hobbesian world of Kissinger geostrategy. Our species rapidly needs to move beyond all of this.....

  • The news of China’s Demi’s are greatly exaggerated... With close to a Billion an a Half people, with over 50% still poor, China has a lot of room for growth. I do think, however, the growth rate will slow, like it has during our trade conflict.

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