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With a New Threat, Iran Tests the Resolve of the U.S. and Its Allies

By The New York Times

President Trump promised that North Korea and Iran could be convinced to give up their nuclear weapons programs. He is learning it’s not that easyRead full story

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  • I suspect this is a miscalculation by Iran— not so much in regards to the US, but to Israel. If Iran keeps pushing and gets too close to an actual nuclear weapon, odds are that Israel will unilaterally destroy the relevant facilities from the air, completely independent of any statements or actions by the US, UN, EU, or anybody else.

    They’ve already done it once, and that was both under a less-militaristic government and before the Israelis had stealth fighters at their disposal.

    This simple fact

    I suspect this is a miscalculation by Iran— not so much in regards to the US, but to Israel. If Iran keeps pushing and gets too close to an actual nuclear weapon, odds are that Israel will unilaterally destroy the relevant facilities from the air, completely independent of any statements or actions by the US, UN, EU, or anybody else.

    They’ve already done it once, and that was both under a less-militaristic government and before the Israelis had stealth fighters at their disposal.

    This simple fact also means that any Iranian nuclear-related threat is unlikely to get the kind of leverage they’d want against the US. There’s a credible reason for US analysts to think that any real Iranian nuclear weapons program would be handled by Israel and thus, from the US perspective, basically just go away as soon as it appears.

    Looking at the situation from that angle, the US has very little reason to give any ground in negotiations. If the Iranians do stick to the deal, they aren’t nuclear-armed and the objective is complete. If they decide to just go for it and try building a bomb, as soon as they get close it’s vaporized by a third party, and the objective is complete— and the other signatories have no reason to hold up their side of the deal anymore.

    Arguably it’s better for the US leadership if they do try to build a bomb— it won’t get anywhere and the deal is good and dead.

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