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Algorithmic Foreign Policy

Algorithmic Foreign Policy

Read more on Scientific American

Featured contributions

  • We've come a long way, from the oracle of Delphi to predictive algorithms. Coupled with unsupervised learning, it could become a key tool; one that will widen the gap even further between countries of different development stages.

    Could an algorithmic prediction about the effects of the burning Amazon

    We've come a long way, from the oracle of Delphi to predictive algorithms. Coupled with unsupervised learning, it could become a key tool; one that will widen the gap even further between countries of different development stages.

    Could an algorithmic prediction about the effects of the burning Amazon rainforest trigger an armed conflict to stop the blaze?

    Would an AI predicted warning be more meaningful and therefore compel all of us to act on the climate crisis rather than the 99% of scientist who warn us every day?

    The last paragraph is worrisome: "In the future, predicting world events could become the norm. Governments that don’t predict events may face havoc. Businesses that ignore predictions may become outcasts. And the only advantage available to countries might be to become more unpredictable than ever before. " - more unpredictable? We have quite enough of that already.

  • For this to be a truly compelling application of ai, the future has to at least reflect the data from the past that the AI learns on. That part seems up for grabs these days. Otherwise, without more understanding of causality, the predictions just aren’t worth that much.

More contributions

  • Our world is already being ran by algorithms and we just do not know all about it yet.

    If government policies will all be based on algorithms in the future, then we could expect a stable and thriving future - unless someone messes up of course.

  • Certainly, the ability to predict the future is enticing. This article fails to offer any circumstances by which there would be mistakes, a one sided analysis that only looks at potential successes is not one I choose to trust.

  • Funny. Predictive modeling is not artificial intelligence. It uses a set of parameters defined by people models defined by people to generate what if simulations that are graded against standards set by people. We used to call that data processing.

    The results may result in determining policies used

    Funny. Predictive modeling is not artificial intelligence. It uses a set of parameters defined by people models defined by people to generate what if simulations that are graded against standards set by people. We used to call that data processing.

    The results may result in determining policies used by people after review since machines do not understand ethics or morality. There is no machine concept of emotional suffering. A machine might have access to historical data but the memory of people that have benefited or suffered because of foreign interference that is filtered by human emotion is another process the machine is incapable of.

    In the dark days of the cold war a fictional war scenario caused by faulty machines is described in "Failsafe" . The lesson in that book has clearly been forgotten.

  • The interesting point in this article is the new relation that came up between AI and geopolitics. However, we must never ignore the human factor. AI provides scenarios to the decision makers and diplomats. Since ever people were looking for predictions in order to take decisions. The oracle of Delphi

    The interesting point in this article is the new relation that came up between AI and geopolitics. However, we must never ignore the human factor. AI provides scenarios to the decision makers and diplomats. Since ever people were looking for predictions in order to take decisions. The oracle of Delphi is the most famous example.

  • Damn, just damn! I agree with the posed implications, but we are talking, humans. I got lots of questions and obvious political implications. Starting with the constitutions of these nations including ours. Not to mention, AI can scan govt. official' s mannerisms and make predictions on markets, social

    Damn, just damn! I agree with the posed implications, but we are talking, humans. I got lots of questions and obvious political implications. Starting with the constitutions of these nations including ours. Not to mention, AI can scan govt. official' s mannerisms and make predictions on markets, social issues, economic etc. for that area. 1984 started all this...

  • There are too many risks with such a “blind” algorithm to start with. Countries would simply form a division to attempt to reverse engineer such algorithms and then direct their foreign policy to game the system. Howzzat?

  • Similar to the story of Sam Brannan who became a millionaire during the California Gold Rush, where he supplied daily goods like food and clothes to thousands of miners coming. Prediction is the key, in other words, AI and data.

  • Pretty weak article on the use of predictive algorithms. For starters, the use of such predictions need to be followed by an explanation, which most algorithms don't have. Also, how about we use these systems to save the population and not only the company's employees? This elite view of AI use, is one

    Pretty weak article on the use of predictive algorithms. For starters, the use of such predictions need to be followed by an explanation, which most algorithms don't have. Also, how about we use these systems to save the population and not only the company's employees? This elite view of AI use, is one of the reasons why social inequality keeps growing.

  • Until recently, politics seemed to be an outlier, almost prone to transformations that is drastically changing almost every business industry. Yet the use case examples over the use of AI suggest foreign policy decisions could move beyond human experience/instincts more to predictive algorithms.

    Although

    Until recently, politics seemed to be an outlier, almost prone to transformations that is drastically changing almost every business industry. Yet the use case examples over the use of AI suggest foreign policy decisions could move beyond human experience/instincts more to predictive algorithms.

    Although this is an exciting step in the right direction (for the developed nations) - it also creates questions on how to gather up the massive data needed and how to label it to train the algorithms. It gives one chills to think what the current leaders risk to get their hands on such sensitive information.

    And a much fierce debate to follow when we later read on algorithmic domestic policies..

  • Considering human thinking is fundamentally flawed and heavily weighed down by a plethora of cognitive biases, having systems in place like the ones addressed in this article would be brilliant. But also curious as per who they’d be available to and what kind of exploitation the system would be subject to...

  • AI can be extremely powerful when used to the right ends, and for the continuing propagation of human freedom. However, it's sinister that China, one of the leading players in this kind of tech, is using AI to hold up its authoritarian regime. Technology is value neutral, and works as well for oppression

    AI can be extremely powerful when used to the right ends, and for the continuing propagation of human freedom. However, it's sinister that China, one of the leading players in this kind of tech, is using AI to hold up its authoritarian regime. Technology is value neutral, and works as well for oppression as it does for empowerment.

  • Minority Report (Spielberg, 2002).

    A future similar to what is depicted in the movie mentioned above. At the end of the movie, government shuts down the predictive program, which is similar to those described in this article.

    But again such algorithms can be very insightful when it comes to avoiding

    Minority Report (Spielberg, 2002).

    A future similar to what is depicted in the movie mentioned above. At the end of the movie, government shuts down the predictive program, which is similar to those described in this article.

    But again such algorithms can be very insightful when it comes to avoiding political turmoils , civil wars and crime prevention, or impact of century-long human activities on the environment. Can we predict the impact of 14 Billion people and their activities on the planet? What are these activities? Can the planet accommodate such numbers and activities? For how long? If not, what can the planet accommodate or sustain? Or HOW?

    On the other hand, as someone mentioned here, it can get complicated to predict human emotions. Governments can deploy such technologies to achieve better governance free from political turmoil or social unrest.

  • Diplomatic cables are so last century.

  • Of course, the response to ai reading important people for clues to future events is to create ai simulations of important people to deliberately project false clues. The singularity approaches on little cat feet.

  • I don't think there will ever be an algorithm that can account for mercurial leadership decisions.

  • Ahoy! Joy!