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“If you had to describe the state of the economy in an emoji, it’d be: 🤷,” writes Quartz’s Walter Frick. Uncertainty is everywhere, and heated political conflicts don’t help. From US-Iran relations to an ongoing Brexit, Quartz breaks down which global disputes could bring down global markets. ✦

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  • In the last month Trump and his team have

    -> signed a partial deal with China that does a 180° from our bilateral commitments that have grossly disadvantaged the US for decades

    -> signed a comprehensive new agreement with Mexico that restores fairer policies for the US.

    Look at that uncertainty

    In the last month Trump and his team have

    -> signed a partial deal with China that does a 180° from our bilateral commitments that have grossly disadvantaged the US for decades

    -> signed a comprehensive new agreement with Mexico that restores fairer policies for the US.

    Look at that uncertainty spike that dates to Nov 2016. Trump has not been doing it behind the scenes but in large part via Twitter, and the press have been fanning the uncertainty flames at every juncture. Trade deals take time, trade deals dont have binary outcomes, the process is just that, a process, and the press has reported on every speed bump, negotiating posture, bluff, and hard line stance and gleefully focusing on and damning the inherent sausage-making process of trade negotiations. Ultimately it's about securing terms that are most advantageous to US interests without being overly detrimental or punitive to the counterparty. You may not give the president many style points but on Mexico and China Part 1 he stuck the landing. I'd like to think that merits a little more confidence in studies like this one.

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