This could be the worst job market for new college grads in years
Most employers say they don’t plan to increase hiring next year for new college graduates, a new survey finds
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College graduates could be stepping into one of the toughest job markets in a long time next year, a new survey found.
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In its latest job outlook survey for 2026, which surveys employers on their “hiring intentions” for new college graduates, the National Association of Colleges and Employers discovered that hiring for entry-level jobs is likely to be stagnant next year.
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About 25% of employers reported that they plan to increase hiring while the vast majority — about 60% — plan to maintain hiring. Only about 14% plan to decrease hiring, the survey found.
More than half of employers rated the job market poor or fair — a twelve percentage point increase compared to last year’s survey. Based on previous survey data, this is the first time since 2022, and before then in 2020, when the majority of employers rated the market poor or fair.
For employers that plan to decrease hiring, they pointed to a reduction in business needs or projects as well as an uncertain economy and budget cuts as the primary reasons. Employers still planning to hire new grads said their reasons for doing so include company growth and succession planning.
Will AI replace entry-level roles?
Not in overwhelmingly in 2026, according to the survey. About 60% of employers said they aren’t replacing entry-level jobs with AI, while 25% said they’re unsure if they’re replacing roles with the tech. Only 14% said they’re discussing replacing these jobs with AI.
While this survey’s findings on AI may ease some concerns for 2026 graduates, other reports are sounding the alarm. An August study from Stanford University suggests employers are already replacing entry-level work with AI; and in May, Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei told Axios that he thinks AI could get rid of half of all white-collar, entry-level jobs.
Employers reported that about 13% of jobs require AI skills, while 10.5% of entry-level jobs have AI in their descriptions.
As a fresh batch of college grads enter the labor market — which just saw its largest job cuts in a month since 2003 — they’ll be battling a hiring pause, more experienced job seekers, and the twin threat of mass automation and an AI bubble.
NACE’s Job Outlook 2026 Survey was conducted between Aug. 7 through Sept. 22.