Investors will digest reams of jobs data, plus U.S. beer sales and more. The stock market is closed on July 4th
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Last week, a final GDP revision showed the U.S. economy contracting by 0.5% in Q1 2025 — the steepest decline since the pandemic — dragged down by a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes, plus pullback in consumer spending, exports, and government outlays. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress reaffirmed a wait-and-see stance, though corners of the market are still clinging to hopes for a rate cut this summer.
Still, stocks rallied. The S&P 500 briefly touched a fresh intraday high, lifted by Big Tech. Nvidia $NVDA surged to new records, while earnings from Nike $NKE and FedEx $FDX offered a more mixed picture. That’s today’s market in a nutshell: Tech rallies while most other sectors continue to lag.
Now we head into a short, light week. Think of it as the calm before Q2 earnings season and the next Fed decision. Unless Friday’s jobs data (out Thursday) sharply misses or surprises, markets should be fairly quiet.
With so few scheduled news events, even second-tier data could get extra attention this week, including the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for June, which offers an early glimpse into factory activity ahead of the national ISM report. While regional, the index has been trending in contraction territory, and another weak print could reinforce concerns about slowing momentum.
Tuesday brings a more significant slate of data, headlined by the ISM Manufacturing Index for June — a closely watched gauge expected to remain in contraction after several months of weak showings. Also out Tuesday: the job openings report for May, which the Fed monitors for labor market health, and construction spending data for May.
Before market, expect the release of the ADP employment report for June, which offers a private-sector preview of the official jobs data due Thursday. With expectations low — just 37,000 new jobs — the bar for a positive surprise is minimal. Markets may also react to earnings from Constellation Brands $STZ (the company behind U.S. sales of Corona, Modelo, and other popular beers and wines).
Thursday should be busy, with a packed morning of top-tier data ahead of the July 4 market holiday. The June employment report will be closely watched, with forecasts calling for 139,000 new jobs, a 4.2% unemployment rate, and 3.9% annual wage growth. Also out at 8:30 a.m. are initial jobless claims and the U.S. trade deficit for May.
Markets will be closed for the holiday.
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