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The Bureau of Labor Statistics is still dark amid the government shutdown, but Wall Street’s own gauges are flashing warning signs for the job market.
Carlyle Group’s proprietary dashboard pegged September payroll gains at just 17,000, down from an already weak August. It's evidence that hiring has remain muted even as output holds up, and other private data sources tell a similar story. ADP’s September report showed private payrolls falling by 32,000, the steepest drop since 2023, with small businesses bearing the brunt of the hit and wage growth coming in soft, too.
Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management’s services survey showed employment shrinking for a fourth straight month, with more companies cutting than adding jobs. “There is nothing showing we’re going to change trajectory,” said ISM Chair Steve Miller, during a conference call. “It’s flat — no increase or decrease. It’s not a good trajectory. There’s nothing, no impetus so far that I see that says things are going to start expanding."
On the sentiment front, consumers are growing warier: the New York Fed’s survey shows rising perceived odds of job loss and expectations of higher unemployment ahead. The Conference Board’s indicators point to fewer respondents calling jobs “plentiful.” Goldman Sachs $GS' measure of labor-market tightness has slipped back to 2015-like conditions, which also signals harder times for job seekers.
Of course, caveats apply. These sources each cover a slice of the economy — whether portfolio companies, bank and payroll clients, or purchasing managers — and they don’t always match the official data (which has seen hefty revisions of its own). But taken together they do suggest a job market that’s not collapsing so much as disinflating. Hiring is low, but pink slips haven’t yet spiked. State jobless claims likewise remain low, suggesting that layoffs are not widespread, at least right now.
Even with gold prices smashing through milestones, mortgage applications slipping, and personal bankruptcies spiking, the major indexes keep flirting with new record highs.
It’s as if everyone can feel a slowdown that never quite arrives. Call it the uneasy pause between the boom that was and whatever comes next.
