Why the first wave of new tariff letters targets a mix of allies, low-volume trade partners, and BRICS-adjacent economies
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President Donald Trump has reignited his global tariff push this week, posting letters on social media that include the specific import tax rates that 14 countries will face unless they strike trade deals with the U.S. The move comes just hours before his self-imposed July 9 deadline, which has now been pushed to August 1.
At first glance, the 14 countries make for a strange list, with most not among the world’s top trading partners. Aside from Japan and South Korea, most are smaller or mid-sized economies, including Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, Tunisia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Laos, and Myanmar.
So why start here? Despite direct questions, the administration has not shared its logic, leaving the public to wonder: Why would relatively small and unimportant trading partners figure in what appears to be the first round of letter-sending?
While some experts see strategic posturing, others believe the logic is more pragmatic. Spencer Hakimian, a hedge fund manager, told Quartz that the targets are meant to disrupt transshipping practices — where U.S. importers route Chinese or sanctioned goods through third-party countries to avoid direct penalties. “It’s to penalize the American importers that are transshipping via Asia and Africa,” he said.
Here are several additional possible explanations.
Small economies like Tunisia, Laos, or Bosnia can't credibly threaten retaliation, which could make them easy marks for maximum drama and minimal consequence. Announcing tariffs on these nations first may let Trump create a “tough-on-trade” spectacle without risking market-shaking retaliation from, say, China or the E.U.
The administration may also be looking for a sort of messaging sandbox. Testing tactics on smaller partners could let Trump’s team monitor market reaction, refine talking points, and prepare legal defenses before making bigger moves against larger, more powerful allies.
Several of the countries listed, including Indonesia, South Africa, and Bangladesh, are members or allies of BRICS or Global South coalitions. Publicly targeting these governments could be a strategy to pressure them away from China’s orbit, effectively testing which partners might be willing to break rank.
The administration has already extended its tariff deadline once, from July 9 to August 1, while offering vague invitations for countries to “make a deal.” The letters — and their theatrical rollout on Truth Social — may signal intent without hard implementation, allowing Trump to maintain leverage while appearing decisive.
It’s possible that randomness itself may be part of the strategy. Unpredictability forces countries to stay engaged — if they don’t know who's next or why, it keeps the administration in control of the narrative. "Strategic uncertainty," as one trade association head put it, is doing short-term damage, but it's also getting attention.
So while Cambodia and Tunisia may not matter much in terms of U.S. trade volume, they could offer a pretext for optics, helping to create a kind of credible threat environment.
Given that all the letters include typos and sections copy and pasted from other letters, while some incorrectly address foreign leaders, it may be overreach to assume there’s strategy at work.
The simplest explanation? The Trump team rushed to post something, anything, before the self-imposed July 9 deadline.
In this light, the letters look less like a calibrated trade strategy and more like a last-minute scramble, using a copy-paste template with swapped-in names and rates. Errors, typos, and misaddressed leaders suggest speed mattered more than precision — a performance of toughness, not a functional negotiation step.
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