The tally for US governor’s races looks pretty good for Democrats in yesterday’s midterm elections. Seven states were flipped from Republicans, and none were lost.
Michigan and Wisconsin, two states that were key to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential victory, went to Democratic candidates. And a key presidential ally, Kris Kobach, was also trounced by a Democrat in traditionally red Kansas.
Other states that Trump swung red in 2016—Iowa, Ohio, and Florida—stuck to the GOP. Overall, though, the results are encouraging for Democrats in 2020. Here’s why:
Bluish states
Some of the states that Democrats snatched from Republican governors this year were already leaning blue: Nevada, New Mexico, Illinois, and Maine all went to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Democrats also kept Pennsylvania, which Trump won (but it already had a Democratic governor.)
Results in US Senate races, the only other statewide gauge of how voters are feeling in the midterms, back those gains. Democrats won Senate seats in New Mexico and Nevada—in the latter, they actually flipped the seat from a Republican. In Maine, the Democrat running for Senate didn’t stand a chance, but the state’s independent incumbent senator beat his Republican opponent by a wide margin.
Another notable win for progressive Democrats was in Colorado, where the governor’s mansion was held by a centrist member of the party, John Hickenlooper. He will be replaced by decidedly more liberal Jared Polis, an openly gay US congressman who campaigned on issues such as universal healthcare and achieving a 100% renewable energy goal by 2040.
Swing states
Democrats’ results in swing states were mixed. They had some key victories in the Midwest, but the margins are not super wide. They also lost some big states, including Florida (though Andrew Gillum’s loss there was very narrow, which could be a promising sign for Democrats.) Here are results for the swing states from 2016:
Deep red
While most traditionally red states stayed red, one major victory for Democrats was Kansas, a state that went to Trump by a 10-point margin. On Tuesday, Democratic candidate Laura Kelly won it by five percentage points.
To be sure, party alone does not determine who gets elected. Kris Kobach, the Republican in the race, is a controversial figure who, unlike other GOP candidates who sought to strike a more moderate tone, closely aligned himself with Trump. He’s a close White House ally, and the president campaigned for him.
Kobach’s big loss could be a sign of Trump backlash, more than Democratic fervor. “What happened in Kansas was a wave of common sense, a wave of bipartisanship,” said Kelly in her victory speech. Either way, her win is good news for her party.