BETTING ODDS

There is now a 40% chance of Brexit being scrapped, says Goldman Sachs

Anti-Brexit demonstrators marching in London on March 23.
Anti-Brexit demonstrators marching in London on March 23.
Image: REUTERS/Henry Nicholls
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All the Brexit drama could, in the end, prove to be much ado about nothing. In light of the UK Parliament shooting down prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal for a third time Friday (March 29), investment bank Goldman Sachs now puts the odds of Brexit not happening at all at 40%, up from 35%.

In a note to clients, the bank said it still thinks the more likely scenario is Parliament eventually approving a modified version of the UK’s withdrawal agreement with the European Union, Bloomberg reports (paywall). But it’s lowered the odds of that happening from 50% to 45%. And it sees the timing of that process being longer now, skewed more toward an Article 50 extension of over a year. The longer the extension, “the greater the likelihood of no Brexit at all,” noted analyst Adrian Paul.

Meanwhile the bank put the odds of a no-deal Brexit at just 15%.

Goldman Sachs, like many others, has been adjusting its expectations as the Brexit drama has unfolded. In late January, it lowered the odds of a Brexit cancellation from 40% to 35%. It also said there was a 50% chance of Brexit being delayed from its March 29 deadline. The current deadline is, for now, April 12.