The European Commission’s latest economic forecast, published today, paints a mildly optimistic picture, with growth on the continent steadily improving, unemployment gradually easing, and inflation remaining low but never tipping over into deflation.
The full 184-page document (pdf) is packed with details, but you don’t need to read the entire thing to get a feel for how each EU economy is performing. Each country gets its own chapter in the forecast, and the economists—or their subeditors—give each a pithy title, summarizing its contents in just a few words. This serves as a quick, almost haiku-like assessment of every EU economy. You can also get a feel for shifts in sentiment by tracking how these headings evolve from one forecast to the next.
Of course, you lose a lot of nuance if this is all you read, but you also save a lot of time. And sometimes you only need to know the basics to hold your own in casual conversation—the next time Poland comes up at a cocktail party, for instance, you can note, sagely, that it is finally “regaining economic momentum,” which is a relief since only a year ago it was “flying on one engine.” (If someone asks what you mean by that, pretend that you just received an important text message and politely excuse yourself.)
Below are the country chapter headings from the latest forecast and the one published in February last year. Consider it your cheat sheet on the European economy.
AUSTRIA
2013: Embarking on a moderate upturn
2014: Timid recovery expected to gain traction
BELGIUM
2013: Sluggish growth and ongoing fiscal consolidation
2014: Growth expectations up, inflation down
BULGARIA
2013: Slow recovery ahead
2014: Economic growth resuming, but labour market still weak
CROATIA
2013: Staying in the economic doldrums
2014: Muted growth prospects amid a high fiscal deficit and rising debt
CYPRUS
2013: Prolonged recession and deleveraging ahead
2014: Recession bottoms out while adjustments are underway
CZECH REPUBLIC
2013: Anemic consumption and a fragile labor market
2014: Economic activity to strengthen in 2014
DENMARK
2013: Gradually gaining traction
2014: Moving out of stagnation
ESTONIA
2013: Growing strongly, in tune with the other Baltic States
2014: GDP growth regaining momentum with recovering exports
FINLAND
2013: Domestic demand remains main growth driver
2014: Nascent recovery with consolidation needs ahead
FRANCE
2013: Postponed recovery weighs on public finance
2014: Recovery remains slow amid sizeable budget deficits
GERMANY
2013: Gradual recovery following a temporary setback
2014: Accelerated growth in the offing
GREECE
2013: Conditions set for emerging from turbulence
2014: First signs of recovery
HUNGARY
2013: Slow economic recovery weighs on public finances
2014: A mild recovery, sustained by domestic demand
IRELAND
2013: Easing financing conditions and a modest growth recovery
2014: Adjustment supported by stronger economic growth
ITALY
2013: Economic recession bottoming out in mid-2013
2014: A slow recovery is underway
LATVIA
2013: Strong growth amid low inflation and robust public finances
2014: Economic growth and job creation continue at a sound pace
LITHUANIA
2013: Steady growth ahead
2014: Solid growth continues in a context of macroeconomic stability
LUXEMBOURG
2013: Less manufactures made in Luxembourg
2014: Robust growth above the euro-area average
MALTA
2013: Growth gradually gaining pace
2014: Private consumption to drive growth
NETHERLANDS
2013: Housing market adjustments impose a drag on economic activity
2014: Economic recovery takes shape after two years of recession
POLAND
2013: Flying on one engine
2014: Regaining economic momentum
PORTUGAL
2013: Negative growth surprise could signal delayed recovery
2014: Gradual economic recovery
ROMANIA
2013: Domestic demand drives modest recovery
2014: Export-led rebound turning into a more broad-based recovery
SLOVAKIA
2013: Growth temporarily weakens as external boost tails off
2014: Growth to pick up in 2014
SLOVENIA
2013: Double-dip and on-going adjustment delay consolidation
2014: Easing market tensions but deleveraging still ongoing
SPAIN
2013: Net exports only source of growth over forecast horizon
2014: The recovery becomes firmer while the rebalancing of the economy continues
SWEDEN
2013: From lackluster growth towards a gradual recovery
2014: Rebounding from a soft patch
UNITED KINGDOM
2013: Green shoots on the horizon
2014: Recovery takes hold, fiscal imbalances still sizeable