By 2018, China will spend more online than the rest of the world combined

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Chinese shoppers are celebrating the online shopping extravaganza Singles Day, and by 1:30pm local time, they had spent nearly $6 billion on Alibaba, the country’s biggest e-commerce site. Last year it took them the full day to cough up that much cash. It is a sign of just how quickly China’s e-commerce market is growing.

But Singles Day is just the beginning. Chinese e-commerce is about to get much, much bigger. By 2018 sales from e-commerce in China will exceed those in the rest of the world combined, reckons Morgan Stanley.

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At the rate e-commerce is growing, it will account for one in every five renminbi spent in China by 2018.

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One of the factors that helps drive rising e-commerce sales is consumer confidence. The more experience people have with online shopping, the more they spend.

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Another reason is that physical retail infrastructure in China is thin on the ground, especially when compared to more developed economies.

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This is particularly true outside of big urban centers, which helps explain why much of the growth will come from smaller towns. Nearly 60% of active mobile devices are in “tier 3” or smaller cities, and a quarter of online purchases in the first half of this year were made on mobile.

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