No, the US is not on the brink of an avocado shortage

Get out the chips.
Get out the chips.
Image: AP Photo/Matthew Mead
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Yesterday, New York Magazine asked a pressing and emotionally loaded question: “Have You Eaten Your Last Avocado?

The answer: No, at least if you’re American.

In 2015, there will be more avocados available in the US than anytime in the last ten years, according to the Hass Avocado Board. Despite California’s crippling drought, Emiliano Escobedo, the board’s executive director, tells Quartz that Americans have nothing to worry about. For 2015, his group is projecting that at least 1.95 billion lb (885 million kg) of avocados will be available in the US, up from 2014’s 1.85 billion. ”We might actually exceed 2 billion pounds this year,” says Escobedo. That’s due largely to the fact that Peru and Chile, major avocado exporters, are having bumper crops this year.

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Even drought-stricken California—which grows 15% of the avocados consumed in the US—is expecting more avocados this year than last, says Jan DeLyser of the California Avocado Commission. This year’s harvest is up nearly 10%, with 327 million pounds projected for 2015, compared to 2014’s 300 million. California’s avocado growers, she says, “have been prudent” with their water use.

While the New York story predicts much higher prices, Escobedo isn’t convinced that will happen, either. “Supply has kept up with demand,” he says. “The board doesn’t speculate about future pricing of avocados. Looking back and today, retail prices per unit have remained relatively stable.”