The spacecraft is slowly being pulled back to Earth. At noon in Hong Kong on May 7, it was floating over the Pacific Ocean at an altitude of just 157 kilometers (98 miles), according to N2YO, a satellite tracking site that lets you follow its travels in real-time:

Image for article titled You probably won’t be hit by debris as this out-of-control Russian spacecraft plummets to Earth on Friday

The ship’s path around the globe and its reentry point are difficult to predict because of the earth’s atmosphere fluctuates with solar activity, as SpaceflightNow explains. Here’s its recent path, just after noon in Hong Kong: tracking of Progress-M 27M tracking of Progress-M 27M

As much as 3,500 pounds of the food and supplies the Progress 59 is carrying could survive re-entry, Bill Ailor, an expert on spacecraft re-entries from Aerospace Corp. told SpaceflightNow. But he said that “much of this material would itself be broken into smaller pieces and spread along a footprint several hundred miles long.”

The debris could fall anywhere between the 51st parallel north and the 51st parallel south, scientists say—a huge swathe of the globe bordered by London, northern Japan and southern Canada in the north and New Zealand and the southern tip of Chile in the south.

The latest estimates of when and where it might re-enter the earth’s atmosphere vary from off the eastern coast of Africa at 11pm UTC (8pm EDT) to an undetermined spot at 5:41am UTC.

Despite the uncertainty, scientists are say there’s little chance of being hit. As Don Kessler, a “seasoned orbital debris expert” explains in this incredibly thorough article about the situation, most items falling to Earth from space wind up in the ocean. And if not:

I would remind everyone that there are 7 billion people on Earth, so the one chance in 10,000 of any individual being harmed means there is only one chance in 70 trillion that the individual would be you. Anyone still frightened by these odds might want to play Powerball, since he or she would be 400,000 times more likely to win the Powerball jackpot than to be hit by the reentering debris.

This isn’t the first time this has happened, either. Several large, uncontrolled spacecraft, including the United States’ Skylab 85 ton space station, have fallen through the Earth’s atmosphere without incident.

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