No matter how you slice it, Trump has a big lead

Hes hired?
Hes hired?
Image: AP Photo/Jae C. Hong
We may earn a commission from links on this page.

Whether it’s the advent or demise of the GOP, Republicans have to start realizing that Donald Trump will likely become their nominee for president.

The latest polls from Quinnipiac University show him winning against his Republican rivals not only nationally (39%), but also with a leading in Florida, with 44% of the support, compared to 28% for the state’s own Marco Rubio.

Trump also takes the top spot in John Kasich’s Ohio, with 31% of the vote to Kasich’s 26%. In Ted Cruz’s Texas, polls are inconclusive: one shows Cruz still with a 15-point lead over Trump, but others show an eight-  and one-point differential.

According to Reuters (and British bookies), Trump may have more than a 90% chance of winning.

Clifford Young and Chris Jackson at Reuters calculate this probability by pointing out that out of the 19 national polls carried out since the Iowa caucuses in February, Trump was on top in 18 of them. If these were actual primaries, he’d have a 95% chance of winning the top GOP prize.

The same pattern holds in their state-level analysis, for which Young and Jackson use Florida. Trump leads in 11 out of the 14 polls conducted in the state since the South Carolina primary, giving him an 80% chance of winning. They also show that instead of losing ground as other candidates drop out of the race, Trump is gaining against Rubio and Cruz.

Trump scored his first congressional endorsements this week, coming from New York and California GOP representatives, Chris Collins and Duncan Hunter, respectively. What’s more, the chances of a deep-pocketed counter-attack from conservative donors is dwindling. Such past attempts have been ineffective and many rich GOP members fear backlash from the billionaire himself, Politico reported.