Britain is teetering on the brink of leaving the European Union, with voters split fairly evenly between staying or exiting.
One factor is particularly decisive as to whether a voter is likely to be pro-stay or pro-leave: age.
And one age specifically has turned out to be the tipping point, according to data from pollster YouGov compiled by The Times. It’s 43.
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The campaign to stay, which includes the UK prime minister and many members of parliament across the left and right, has already realized that the country’s future might well be decided by older voters. In April, the campaign sent postcards to students, encouraging them to persuade their grandmothers to vote against a “Brexit”.
The last time the UK faced a referendum, in 2014, it was on whether Scotland would leave the union or remain part of it. Many believed the vote was deeply affected by the fact 16 and 17-year-olds could vote for the first time. Although Scotland opted to stay, young voters were a driving force behind the campaign for independence.
Younger people in the UK will increasingly have to care for an aging population. And—in part because of that demographic shift—they might have to do so outside the EU.