Betting markets put the odds of a Trump impeachment or resignation at around 48%

What are the odds?
What are the odds?
Image: Reuters/Carlos Barria
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In the history of the US presidency, only three men—Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton—have ever been impeached or resigned. But gamblers are already betting on a fourth.

Ladbrokes, an online betting site, gives about a 48% chance that Donald Trump will leave office by being impeached or resigning within the next four years. Another site, Paddy Power, offers about about a one-in-three chance that Trump will resign or be impeached in his first term.

But those are surely among the most boring Trump bets to make. When will Trump sack Sean Spicer, the beleaguered White House spokesman? (Paddy Power gives him a 64% chance of making it to 2018.) How about Trump’s chance for the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize? (Ladbrokes gives it a 1-in-100 chance.)

Trump-focused online bets span both low- and high-brow speculations. Paddy Power, for instance, lets you wager on whether the Supreme Court will reinstate Trump’s travel ban (a 75% chance it won’t)—as well as whether “Golden Shower footage [will] appear on RedTube” (20% odds).

While politics betting is usually an election-focused affair, the drama and unpredictability of Trump’s tenure have brought out the creativity of online gambling sites. It’s also brought in business.

“From a betting perspective, Donald Trump’s presidency has triggered a massive boom for these kinds of markets,” said Alex Donohue, the PR manager of Ladbrokes, told Politico. “With Donald Trump, everything he does, it can be turn into speculation, and that can be turned into gambling.”

Of course, these sites could use the new business, given how badly off their odds were that Democrat Hillary Clinton would win the election. For instance, Paddy Power shelled out around $5 million to those betting on a Trump victory, reports Politico. Another notorious online-betting-market flub was giving Brexit a 25% chance on the eve of the vote.

It’s worth noting that Ladbrokes bookies offer 8/11 odds—implying a 58% likelihood—that Trump will serve a full term. (That includes the possibility he is impeached and still serves out the term, which makes the odds different from the 48% mentioned above.) Other sites put his shot at winning reelection in 2020 around 35%.

Then again, Paddy Power gives 40% odds that Trump will not complete his first term in office (though the reasons aren’t specified, the possibilities include impeachment, resignation, and death). Eight years ago, the site gave Barack Obama only an 8% chance of the same outcome.