That asteroid hurtling toward Earth is starting to look scarier

There’s a 3.1% chance an asteroid will hit Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. But there’s no reason to panic — at least not yet.

Here’s what you need to know.

What asteroid?

A space rock called 2024 YR4 is now the asteroid with the highest-ever chance of possibly hitting Earth. Scientists don’t know exactly how big it is, but they think it measures between 130 and 300 feet. They also aren’t sure exactly what it’s made of.

Where would it hit?

If 2024 YR4 does enter the atmosphere, the chances that it will hit the ocean are pretty high. That’s good news! However, some of the project paths currently overlap with a few major cities, including Mumbai, Lagos, and Bogotá.

What happens if it hits?

Lorien Wheeler, an engineer at the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA’s Ames Research Center in California, told The New York Times that if 2024 YR4 hits the open ocean, it “would be unlikely to cause a significant tsunami.”

But Mark Boslough, a physicist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, said it would be much worse if it hits solid ground. “The asteroid would create an enormous explosion,” he told The Times, and it would likely leave a massive crater. It also could create a “hot jet of asteroid vapor that would descend to the surface and incinerate everything” nearby.

Much of how impactful it is also depends on what the asteroid is made of.

“We don’t know how dense or porous it is, so its mass, and therefore the energy it would release if it strikes Earth’s surface or explodes in the atmosphere, is uncertain,” Boslough said.

Should I panic?

No. The chances of impact are about the same as a high school senior’s chances of getting into Harvard — that’s quite low. And it’s still a long way away. Astronomers once predicted an asteroid much bigger than 2024 YR4 had a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth. Then those odds went down to zero. A lot can change in seven years.