A next-gen Ozempic falls short in a drug trial — and Novo Nordisk stock plunges 20%

The pharma giant, known for its blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic, said its experimental diabetes and weight-loss drug CagriSema fell short of expectations. The drug did not achieve the projected 25% average weight loss anticipated by the company and analysts. Instead, patients in the phase 3 clinical trial lost an average of 22.7% of their body weight after 68 weeks on the medication.

For comparison, the highest dose of Wegovy, Novo Nordisk’s current weight-loss drug on the market, resulted in an average weight loss of 15% after 68 weeks in clinical trials. Meanwhile, patients taking the highest dose of Eli Lilly $LLY’s (LLY) rival drug, Zepbound, achieved over 20% weight loss after 72 weeks.

Novo Nordisk stock fell over 20% on Friday morning following the news.

CagriSema belongs to the class of drugs known as GLP-1 or incretin medications, which was made popular by Ozempic. These drugs mimic gut hormones that regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite.

Morgan Stanley $MS (MS) analysts anticipate the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. That’s why several pharma companies are racing to develop more powerful weight-loss meds.

Novo Nordisk was betting that by mimicking multiple hormones, it could deliver greater weight loss. CagriSema combines semaglutide — the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy — with cagrilintide, a dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist, hence the name CagriSema.

Still, the trial did deliver some promising results. Novo Nordisk reported that 40.4% of patients taking CagriSema achieved a weight loss of 25% or more over the 68-week trial period.

The company is expected to reveal results of a second phase 3 trial of the drug in the first half of 2025.

Eli Lilly and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), which are also developing next-gen weight-loss drugs, saw their stocks rise 5% and 3%, respectively, on Friday.