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The U.S. auto market might be in for a world of hurt due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, according to a new report from S&P.
S&P Global Mobility (SPGI+1.61%) is cutting 700,000 car and light truck sales from its 2025 forecast, the auto industry tracker revealed in a report published Monday.
“The impact of Trump’s auto tariffs, in combination with the 10% universal tariff, has led to one of the largest single-month changes we’ve ever made to the forecast,” the group wrote. “Only changes reactive to the 2020 Covid global manufacturing pause and the 2008-09 global financial crisis were larger than the changes to the sales and production forecasts for April 2025.”
S&P also cut its 2026 forecast by 1.2 million units and its 2027 forecast by 930,000 units compared with its outlook a month ago.
Tariffs of 25% on all light-vehicle imports to the U.S., regardless of what country they’re imported from, went into effect on April 3. A 25% tariff on auto parts is set to take effect on May 3.
S&P added that it isn’t factoring any potential exemptions into its forecast. On Monday, Trump said he would be open to short-term exemptions for automakers that import parts from Canada and Mexico. “They’re gonna make them here, but they need a little bit of time, so I’m talking about things like that,” he said.
S&P wrote, “At the time we’re writing this, there is no visibility into details.”
Analysts at Wedbush piled on in a note Tuesday, writing that the “head-scratching tariff slate” could result in a 15-20% reduction in demand for new auto purchases in the U.S.
“We reiterate the concept of a U.S.-made car with all U.S. parts is a fairy tale fictional narrative,” the analysts wrote. “This auto tariff (in its current form) will send the auto industry into upside down mode and raise the average price of cars between $5k on the low end and $10k to $15k on the high end.”
During Tuesday morning trading, Ford (F+4.66%) stock fell 2.2%, General Motors (GM+3.46%) lost 1.5%, and Stellantis (STLA+6.37%) shed 0.1%.