Consumer expectations hit a 12-year low

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slid 7.2 points in March to 92.9, according to numbers released today. Economists had been expecting a reading of 93.5. However, if consumers have a dim view of the present, their future outlook is even grimmer.

Future expectations pointed to even deeper consumer anxiety, with a cratering of 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years. According to the Conference Board, a reading of 80 or below is considered a recession signal.

“Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

Home sales also failed to live up to analysts expectations. While sales were up 1.8% in February to a 676,000 annualized rate, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 680,000 annual rate.

Dr. Albert Williams, an Associate Professor of Finance and Economics at Nova Southeastern University, blamed the trade war and tariffs for most of the consumer unease.

“This is adding expectations of higher prices in the next two quarters and reducing consumer confidence,” Williams said, adding that consumer confidence requires stability, which, at this point, he says, won’t happen until later in the year.

Sam Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, put it more succinctly: “This morning’s Conference Board index shows the new administration’s plans for tariffs and spending cuts are going down like a lead balloon with households.”