Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket put the odds above 90% that Musk will cross $1 trillion in net worth before 2027
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Elon Musk is being priced as near-certain to become the world's first trillionaire on prediction markets, with traders assigning better than 90% odds that he will cross the milestone before 2027 as SpaceX moves toward a public offering, according to CNBC.
On Kalshi, the odds that Musk reaches trillionaire status before 2027 stand above 90%, with traders placing roughly 93% odds on him reaching the benchmark before 2028, according to CNBC. On Polymarket, a separate prediction platform, traders have placed 92.5% market-implied odds on the outcome, citing the combined SpaceX and xAI valuation of $1.25 trillion following the companies' February merger and preparations for a mid-2026 IPO.
The math underpinning the consensus is straightforward. According to a prospectus released with the filing, Musk holds approximately 5.1 billion SpaceX shares alongside options on roughly 350 million additional shares, exercisable at $8.39 apiece, according to Bloomberg. A $2 trillion IPO valuation would push his total fortune to around $1.1 trillion once his approximately $292 billion Tesla $TSLA position is factored in, Bloomberg reported. Even at a $1.75 trillion valuation, he would clear the trillion-dollar threshold.
A securities filing released this week formalized SpaceX's long-anticipated move into public markets, confirming that outside investors will be able to purchase shares for the first time. Under the ticker SPCX, the company is set to list on Nasdaq $NDAQ, according to the filing. The IPO is expected to take place next month, with pricing anticipated on June 11 and trading beginning the following day, according to Bloomberg.
The filing disclosed that 2025 revenue reached $18.6 billion, marking a 33% year-over-year gain. For the three months ending March 31, losses came to $4.3 billion. Starlink's subscriber base has doubled over the past year, reaching 10.3 million users.
If successful, the deal would eclipse every prior IPO in history, including Saudi Aramco's 2020 offering, which brought in $29.4 billion from investors, according to NBC News. Goldman Sachs $GS is at the head of a syndicate spanning 23 financial institutions that are collectively managing the transaction, according to Bloomberg.
Musk has been the world's wealthiest person for nearly two years. Larry Page, the Google $GOOGL co-founder whose fortune stands at $327.8 billion, would trail Musk by a factor of more than three if that threshold is reached, according to Bloomberg.
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