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Here’s what you need to know
The IMF expects the global economy to grow 6% in 2021. China and India, with projected GDP growth of 8.4% and 12.5% respectively, will be key drivers of the recovery.
The US might boycott the Beijing Olympics in 2022. The State Department said the US plans to discuss the possibility with its allies.
TikTok’s owner got slapped with an $11 million bill. An Indian court ruled that ByteDance owes the government money over alleged tax evasion.
Flipkart’s IPO could come as soon as Q4. Walmart’s Indian subsidiary has a potential valuation of $35 billion, Bloomberg reports.
India could resume exporting vaccines by June. The world’s largest vaccine maker halted shipments of AstraZeneca in March in order to prioritize surging domestic demand. Meanwhile, rising Covid-19 infections prompted New Delhi to announce a 10pm curfew through April 30.
Oxford paused its AstraZeneca trial on children. The university is awaiting updates from the UK’s medical regulator over whether the vaccine is linked to rare blood-clotting in adults.
Australia and New Zealand are creating a travel bubble. The countries will allow residents to hop back and forth without quarantine requirements. The news gave a boost to Asian-Pacific airline stocks.
What to watch for
Given the current state of the cruise industry, Carnival’s quarterly earnings report today may not provide much cause for celebration. The company also just announced it’s canceling all trips from US ports through June 30. But the coming months could see smoother sailing: the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidance Monday that ships won’t need to require vaccines to restart cruising, and investors are optimistic, despite there being no firm date for when that might happen. Here’s what to expect from cruises this year:
🛳 Vaccine requirements will vary. Norwegian Cruise Line plans to make jabs mandatory for passengers and crew in the US, while Carnival says it has no stance. At least some Mediterranean cruises, meanwhile, will require vaccinations.
🛳 Cruises to nowhere will still be popular. P&O Cruises is launching a port-less route up the UK coast this summer, and Royal Caribbean has extended its sailings out of Singapore.
🛳 Some ports will have new restrictions. Venice plans to bar ships from the historic city center to ease traffic and pollution, something locals have long asked for.
Track the economic impact of the pandemic—and the recovery—on travel and other industries with the coronavirus living briefing.
Charting the cost of India’s latest lockdown
On April 5, Maharashtra—India’s richest state and home to financial hub Mumbai—entered a strict lockdown, with malls, cinema halls, and salons ordered to shut until April 30. On weekends, residents may only leave their homes for emergency purposes.
This disruption to businesses is estimated to chip off Rs40,000 crore ($5.4 billion) from India’s GDP during the current financial year that ends in March 2022, according to Mumbai-based CARE Ratings. Maharashtra contributes around 15% to India’s GDP.
The future of US retail
An estimated 80,000 retail stores in the US will close in the next five years, according to a forecast by investment firm UBS. Some types of stores—particularly those most threatened by e-commerce alternatives—are likely to be hit much harder than others:
Stores are under more pressure than before to justify their existence. Many will need to become more than just a place to buy things, perhaps acting as showrooms for customers to see and test products or providing immersive branded experiences. And many will need to find ways to work with e-commerce, not despite it.
✦ E-commerce has been nipping at the heels of physical retail for a long time, thanks in no small part to one company (spoiler alert: it’s Amazon). Read more in our field guide to Jeff Bezos’s legacy. Got a Quartz membership in your shopping cart but not ready to check out just yet? Try it for free.
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Surprising discoveries
Canada may run out of warehouse space by the end of the year. Blame the pandemic e-commerce boom.
Film students are making movies with AI-generated scripts. Their short films use AI software designed to combat writer’s block.
Lockdowns lit up the night sky in the UK. People saw more stars this February than they had since 2013.
French rabbits are excellent at handstands. That’s thanks to a genetic mutation in a bunny variety known as the “sauteur d’Alfort.”
The US government will pay $500,000 for a better face mask. It’s sponsoring a design competition meant to make masks more comfortable and effective.
Our best wishes for a productive day. Please send any news, comments, AI scripts, and cruise itineraries to hi@qz.com. Get the most out of Quartz by downloading our iOS app and becoming a member. Today’s Daily Brief was brought to you by Prathamesh Mulye, Marc Bain, Sarah Todd, and Liz Webber.