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U.S. stocks opened lower Tuesday as traders eyed rising volatility and digested fresh — and troubling — trade data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 447 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 also slid 1.15%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.8%.
BEA data shows trade gap doubling as Fed meets
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in March, rising to $140.5 billion — a 14% jump from February’s revised $123.2 billion, according to new data released Tuesday by the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Economists had forecast a shortfall of $137.6 billion, but imports surged, driving the deficit sharply higher —and revealing a key unintended consequence of rising trade tensions.
The report comes just as the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting. While rates are expected to stay put, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Wednesday will be endlessly combed for any signals about future rate directions — and any hints as to political goings-on behind the scenes.
New supply chain data underscores the broader fallout
According to trade tracker Vizion, U.S. export activity has slumped across nearly all product categories since early 2025, with agriculture especially hard hit. Ports from Oregon to Savannah are reporting double-digit drops in outbound container traffic, and arrivals from Asia plunged 43% in late April.
Freight executives now liken the disruption to early COVID-era chaos, as businesses cancel orders, shift sourcing, and scramble to navigate rising costs.
Ford and Mattel become the latest to pull forecasts
Ford (F) posted Q1 revenue of $40.7 billion and adjusted EBIT of $1.0 billion, but yanked its full-year guidance, unsurprisingly attributing the move to deepening uncertainty over tariffs and global regulations. The company now expects a $1.5 billion hit to adjusted EBIT this year, and execs promised updated guidance in Q2.
The exposure is real: Ford’s sprawling global supply chain relies heavily on imports of auto parts and raw materials, particularly from Mexico, Canada, and China. The company has already weathered billions in costs from past steel and aluminum tariffs and now faces fresh pressure as the U.S. signals a new round of levies. Ford stock was up 1% Tuesday morning.
Mattel (MAT) also beat expectations — with Q1 revenue up 2% to $827 million — but joined Ford in scrapping its 2025 forecast. The toymaker flagged up to $270 million in tariff-related costs and said it will raise prices, shift supply chains, and cost cuts to blunt the impact.
The toy giant still sources the bulk of its products from China — around 65–70% — making it one of the most tariff-sensitive U.S. brands. Mattel has pledged to cut that figure to below 15% by 2026 by investing in factories in Mexico, Vietnam, and India, but the pivot takes time. In the meantime, they’re on the front lines of a trade war that shows no real signs of resolution.
Mattel stock was up slightly Tuesday morning.
How do you even tariff a movie?
In related trade-war news, Trump said on Sunday that he wants to impose 100% tariffs on foreign films — which, as the week rolls on, has some observers scratching their heads.
With most movies streaming rather than crossing borders in physical form, any attempt to tax them would theoretically involve targeting licensing fees or crafting a new levy on digital media. That would raise a host of legal, logistical, and diplomatic headaches — and risk backfiring on U.S. platforms or consumers in the process.
Shares of Netflix (NFLX) and Disney (DIS) were both mostly flat Tuesday morning.
OpenAI’s about-face
OpenAI is keeping its nonprofit heart — scrapping a controversial plan to convert control of its AI business to a for-profit structure. Instead, the nonprofit board that ousted (and then reinstated) Sam Altman in 2023 will remain in charge. The company said discussions with regulators in California and Delaware, whose approval would have been needed for the change, had been a factor.
Today’s earnings: from chips to check-ins
AMD’s (AMD) results are expected after the bell today as Wall Street scans for any read on AI-driven chip demand.
Also reporting: Arista Networks (ANET), Duke Energy (DUK), Ferrari (RACE), DoorDash (DASH), and Marriott International (MAR) — delivering a cross-section of data on everything from infrastructure and travel to luxury and logistics.