Where are wages for US workers heading?

Considering the decline it has observed, Indeed predicts that wage growth on job postings will return to its pre-pandemic trend of 3% to 4% growth by the second half of 2023.

Since overall wage growth lags the wage growth for new hires, it could be well into 2024 before the Federal Reserve sees its measure return to pre-pandemic levels.

Also, Indeed notes, as the reward for switching jobs goes down, workers will be less likely to quit their current jobs, which will put further downward pressure on wages.

This slower wage growth is broad, affecting more than 80% of industries in the US, according to the Indeed’s data. But it’s been most significant for childcare employment, which was still up by 9.5% in November but has dropped by 4.5 percentage points in the last six months.

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