America’s global classroom is emptying

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Pop quiz: How do you plan a university budget when you don't know if your international students — who pay full tuition and prop up your finances — will be allowed in the country? For U.S. colleges, it's a test they're failing as Trump administration policies lurch from crackdown to cooperation and back again.

The volatility reflects broader tensions over America's relationship with international education. While the administration has used enrollment restrictions as leverage in university settlements, forcing Columbia to commit to reducing its "financial dependence" on international students, economists warn that fewer foreign students could cost colleges billions in revenue and tens of thousands of jobs. With international students contributing nearly $44 billion annually to the U.S. economy and Chinese nationals alone comprising roughly 277,000 students nationwide, the policy whiplash threatens not just individual institutions but America's position as a global education destination.

The numbers tell a stark story that should alarm anyone who cares about American competitiveness. NAFSA, the Association of International Educators and the leading advocacy group for international education, projects 150,000 fewer international students this fall, potentially wiping out 60,000 higher education jobs. Universities are already feeling the squeeze: USC faces a $200 million budget gap and will likely do a major round of layoffs, while the University of Utah moves to cut 81 academic programs.

The confusion reached its peak in June when Secretary of State Marco Rubio vowed to "aggressively revoke" Chinese student visas, only to have Trump announce two weeks later that Chinese students were "always good with me!" as part of a trade deal. 

The administration's approach has been scattershot but relentlessly punitive. This spring, officials sought to deport international students for participating in pro-Palestinian activism and abruptly revoked the legal status of thousands of others, some for minor infractions like traffic tickets. After reversing course, the administration froze new student-visa appointments and began screening applicants' social media accounts. 

Meanwhile, Trump's travel ban has affected students from 12 countries, with restrictions on seven others. NAFSA points to reports that suggest limited to no visa review appointments for prospective students in India, China, Nigeria, and Japan — countries that collectively send hundreds of thousands of students to U.S. campuses.

On Thursday, Trump added another layer of bureaucratic intimidation by mandating that universities hand over racial admissions data to prove they're not practicing affirmative action. It's the latest tool in an administration playbook that's weaponizing everything from federal funding to enrollment caps as leverage against higher education.

Consider the Columbia settlement, reached after the administration withheld over $400 million in federal research funds. Beyond requiring the university to pay $221 million in penalties, the agreement includes an extraordinary provision forcing Columbia to "decrease financial dependence on international student enrollment," a measure that defies basic economics given that international students typically pay higher tuition than domestic students.

While American universities scramble to appease an administration that seems determined to kneecap them, competitors worldwide are celebrating. U.K. undergraduate applications from China jumped 10 percent this year, while applications from U.S. students to British programs hit a 20-year high of 14 percent growth. Hong Kong universities report "hundreds of transfer inquiries" from students already in America.

At a time when the number of college-age Americans is declining, the administration is actively discouraging the students who could fill empty seats and pay full freight. Without immigrants and international students, the undergraduate population would shrink by nearly 5 million students by 2037. 

International students aren't just customers — they're the future workforce America desperately needs. At U.S. universities, 71% of full-time graduate students in computer and information sciences and 73% in electrical and computer engineering are international students. One-quarter of billion-dollar startup companies in the U.S. have a founder who first came to America as an international student. As Trump repeatedly declares his intention to win the global AI race and maintain America's technological edge, his administration is systematically driving away the very talent pipeline that makes such dominance possible.

With Trump officials investigating more than 50 universities and promising the Columbia agreement will serve as a "model" for future settlements, the administration appears determined to use every available tool, from visa revocations to data mandates to funding threats, to reshape American higher education. Universities are left playing an impossible guessing game, trying to budget for a future where the rules change faster than they can plan and where their most talented students may simply decide America isn't worth the risk.