Is the Fed inviting a recession with another interest rate hike?

At the end of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the interest rate is expected to jump by 75-100 bps.
More hawkish than doveish.
More hawkish than doveish.
Photo: Jonathan Ernst (Reuters)
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The US Federal Reserve is hell-bent on curbing inflation—even if it takes a jumbo interest rate hike to do it.

After a two-day meeting concludes tomorrow (Sept. 21), the Fed is expected to raise the interest rate by at least 75 bps (0.75%)—like the last two times—if not a bigger 100 bps.

The higher rates could lead to increased joblessness and are already starting to crimp household and business spending, Esther George, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, warned in an interview with CNBC last month.

“These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation,” Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, had said in a speech at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on Aug. 26. “But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

How the Fed’s interest rate changed

By the digits

5.43%: Average interest rate in the US between 1971 and 2022

8.3%: The US inflation rate in August 2022, well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target

315,000: The number of jobs added in the US in August 2022, signaling a strong labor market and furthering the case for a high rate raise

55%: The chance of a recession in the US within 12 months, according to CNBC’s July survey of 30 fund managers, analysts, and economists

A partial fix for inflation

In March 2020, the Fed had cut interest rates to 0% to ease the pandemic’s pressure upon the economy.

Now, with the pandemic “over” and US inflation hitting a 40-year-high, the Fed wants to tame spending. By raising interest rates, the Fed is making it costlier to take out a mortgage or a car, business, or student loan. The hope is that once consumers and businesses borrow and spend less, the economy will cool down and price increases will slow.

But spending is only one factor pushing prices upwards. The global supply chain crunch, exacerbated by covid-19-shutdowns in China and Russia’s war against Ukraine, won’t be affected by interest rates.

“To achieve low inflation rates, currency stability, and faster growth, policymakers could shift their focus from reducing consumption to boosting production,” David Malpass, the World Bank group president, has suggested. “Policies should seek to generate additional investment and improve productivity and capital allocation, which are critical for growth and poverty reduction.”

Without a holistic fix, the rate hikes could trigger a recession in the US and, consequently, around the world.

Europe and England are with the US...

...but Japan is not

Japan’s inflation level is at 3%. The figure seems low compared to the US and Europe, but it is high for Japan. However, the Bank of Japan isn’t stopping its stimulus program.

The widening rate differential with the US has pushed the yen to a 24-year low. But unlike several central banks in Asia that mimicked the US with higher costs of borrowing, Japan continues to maintain its easy monetary policy with ultra-low rates.

Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, is expected to maintain this stance for the remainder of his term, ending in April 2023, given Japan’s weak consumption and the looming risk of a global economic slowdown.

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