It's been a wild week in the markets, with dubious presidential claims and a landmark decision against Big Tech
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
It has been a wild week for U.S. markets, defined by trillion-dollar intraday swings, a landmark legal verdict against Big Tech, and a now-familiar pattern, in which President Donald Trump makes dramatic claims about Iran that independent verification cannot confirm — often followed by market moves that benefit whoever positioned correctly in advance.
As of Friday morning, the S&P 500 is down about 1.5% total since Monday's open, despite a brief surge when Trump posted on Truth Social claiming “very good and productive conversations” with Iran toward a “complete and total resolution” of hostilities. Markets jumped — the S&P added as much as 2.6%, the Dow briefly appeared set to open 900 points higher — before Iran's flat denial thirty minutes later began unwinding the move. By Thursday's close, the index had fallen 1.74%, its worst day since the war began.
Thursday night Trump extended his “pause” on Iran strikes for another 10 days, again claiming talks were “going very well.” He also claimed Iran had gifted the U.S. eight tankers full of oil and that Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz was giving way to a somewhat easier situation with Iran opening to U.S.-related traffic. Very little evidence has emerged to support these claims, however.
On Friday morning, the IRGC turned back three ships that attempted to transit after Trump's announcement — CBS News maritime tracking data corroborates Iran's account. Bloomberg's satellite tracking found no evidence of the eight tankers. Likewise, neither government has confirmed the transfer. Iran's IRGC called Trump's statements "false" and reiterated that the strait is closed.
Meanwhile the Magnificent Seven are having a rough week independent of the war.
Every stock in the group is down double digits from its 52-week high. Meta $META fell nearly 8% Thursday — roughly $112 billion in market cap in a single session — the day after a California jury found the company negligent in a social-media addiction case, a verdict that legal experts say may open the floodgates for thousands of similar suits.
Microsoft $MSFT, for its part, is down more than 30% from its highs after a quarter of slowing sales growth and heavy AI capital expenditure commitments.
Roundhill’s Magnificent 7 ETF, which closely mirrors moves in the basket of Big Tech stocks, fell over 3% on Thursday and is down about 14% since the start of the year. Even against a broader tech index, the Magnificent 7 are suffering., with the Nasdaq $NDAQ 100 own a little over 7% thus far in 2026.
The Wall Street Journal has documented unusual trading activity in oil and S&P 500 futures in the minutes before Trump's Monday post — more than $760 million in oil futures and over $1.5 billion in S&P futures changing hands before the announcement. No clear catalyst existed for either spike. The White House denied any leaks. There is no confirmed evidence of insider trading. The pattern, however, is now consistent enough across multiple Trump market-moving announcements that Democratic senators have called for investigations and prediction markets have tightened their insider trading rules.
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