Nine linked anonymous accounts placed winning wagers on U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, and a ceasefire
MARTIN LELIEVRE / Getty Images
A blockchain analytics firm called Bubblemaps, in an investigation first reported by CBS News, has flagged nine anonymous Polymarket accounts it believes are connected — accounts that racked up more than $2.4 million wagering on U.S. military outcomes in the Iran conflict, with a 98% success rate across upward of 80 bets.
Every one of the accounts was opened within days of America's first assault on Iran in late February, and each went on to correctly call pivotal moments: when U.S. strikes would occur, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be removed from power, and when a ceasefire would be declared. Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the pattern could not be explained by luck alone. "This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far," Vaiman said.
On the rare occasions when the accounts did lose, the amounts were minimal — never more than a few hundred dollars — and Bubblemaps argues those losing bets were deliberate, designed to throw off anyone scrutinizing the accounts' activity, according to Decrypt. According to Decrypt, Bubblemaps traced the proceeds moving out through Bybit, a Dubai-headquartered crypto exchange, with additional activity recorded at Binance and HTX.
The accounts have no confirmed link to the U.S. government. Vaiman told Decrypt that aside from the accounts' focus on U.S. military markets and one account name — "whopperlover" — there is no direct evidence the users are American. "It could still be anyone," he said.
Bubblemaps is not alone in flagging suspicious activity. The nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective separately examined Polymarket activity and reached troubling conclusions, according to The New York Times: when users staked more than $2,500 on military-related outcomes carrying odds of 35% or lower, they came out ahead more often than not — behavior the organization characterized as pointing to "systemic insider-trading." By contrast, the same category of long-shot wager applied to non-military subjects paid off only 14% of the time.
The findings come amid a broader pattern of suspicious trading tied to the Iran conflict. An account called "Magamyman" placed an $87,000 bet on U.S. strikes against Iran about 71 minutes before news of the attacks broke publicly, converting it into more than $553,000. Bubblemaps had previously identified six accounts it described as suspected insiders that collectively netted $1.2 million on Polymarket ahead of those strikes.
The Iran bets follow the indictment of Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Special Forces soldier charged with using classified information to win about $400,000 on Polymarket bets tied to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty. Polymarket said it identified Van Dyke's activity and referred it to the Justice Department.
In a statement, Polymarket said it operates what it described as comprehensive market integrity infrastructure combining AI surveillance and blockchain forensics, and that it refers suspicious activity to law enforcement. "Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified," the company said.
Oversight of prediction markets falls to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The agency has shed staff and seen its enforcement caseload shrink sharply since 2024, according to CBS News. In a statement to The New York Times, Chairman Michael Selig described the CFTC as being on a "renewed focus on efficiency" and said it was deploying artificial intelligence to strengthen oversight. The Senate passed a resolution last month barring senators and their staff from using prediction markets, and legislation introduced by members of Congress would prohibit contracts tied to armed conflict.
The national security stakes were raised by Bubblemaps' head of investigations — a former U.S. military officer who operates under the handle "Deebs" and whose real name CBS News withheld citing personal safety concerns. The suspicious trading patterns, he warned, extend well beyond financial fraud. "Just to put it plainly, this could be putting people's lives at risk," he said. "Other adversaries may be using this information in order to plan their own strategy."
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