Polymarket launched prediction markets tied to private company performance on Tuesday, giving retail participants a way to trade on milestones at companies that have yet to go public.
Events available on the platform will cover private company milestones including valuation thresholds, when a company goes public, and activity in secondary markets, Polymarket said, with Nasdaq $NDAQ Private Market serving as the data infrastructure partner behind the arrangement. Nasdaq Private Market will serve as the resolution data provider, ensuring each market settles against verified data.
"Prediction markets are one of the most powerful tools we have for democratizing access to financial information and opportunity," Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said in a statement. "For the first time, anyone can engage with the outcomes driving value at the world's most consequential private companies."
The company cited figures showing that roughly 1,600 unicorn companies worldwide represent a combined value exceeding $5 trillion, a pool of wealth that has historically been accessible only to institutional players and affluent individual investors. The new offering is intended to open that exposure to a broader audience.
The partnership also creates a price discovery tool for institutional investors, the company said. Nasdaq Private Market CEO Tom Callahan said in a statement that the platform's data would ensure accurate market resolution. Nasdaq Private Market VP of Data Rodolfo Sanchez said in a statement that activity on Polymarket's new markets would generate real-time signals that institutional investors could use to assess private company performance.
The product arrives at a moment when more startups are delaying public listings, according to Reuters, and some have grown large enough to rival the scale of established S&P 500 members.
Polymarket operates alongside Kalshi as one of the dominant prediction market platforms in the U.S. The sector has expanded at a rapid pace since the November 2024 election, drawing regulatory scrutiny and legislative attention. Kalshi recently raised a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation, with the company saying its annualized revenue exceeds $1.5 billion.
The industry has also drawn more than ten bills in Congress aimed at new restrictions on prediction market platforms, following scrutiny over possible insider trading on both Kalshi and Polymarket tied to U.S. military strikes on Iran. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed federal lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to block those states from enforcing gambling statutes against prediction market platforms, arguing it holds exclusive regulatory authority under the Commodity Exchange Act.
The first private-company prediction markets are live on Polymarket now, with additional markets to be added on an ongoing basis, the company said.