The famed weather-forecasting rodent is advising people to not put their coats away. But you might want to check with Staten Island Chuck instead
Jeff Swensen
Punxsutawney Phil has made his forecast. Having 'seen' his shadow on Monday, the prognosticating groundhog says another six months of winter are on the way. Before you begrudgingly put your beanie back on, though, you might want to look at Phil's track record.
Sure he's got great publicists. And the top hatted individuals that surround him lend an air of authority. But the fact of the matter is: Phil's weather predicting prowess is about as accurate as your great aunt's lumbago — maybe worse!
As of 2025, Phil had accurately predicted the next six weeks just 35% of the time. That's 17th among the more than 70 meteorological groundhogs that show up on this day each year.
Staten Island Chuck is the field leader, with an 85% accuracy rate. Admittedly, Chuck's only been at this since 1981, versus Phil's first appearance at Gobbler's Knob in 1887. He's definitely a New York groundhog, though. He once bit the hand of the city's mayor. (For the record, Chuck, too, said winter isn't near done with us yet and will stick around for another month-and-a-half.)
Georgia's Beauregard Lee was the second most accurate groundhog, according to a study by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. And, as if to underscore the Ned Ryerson-level ridiculousness of the day, the third most accurate weather rodent is Lander Lil, which isn't a groundhog, but is, in fact, a statue of a prairie dog in Lander, Wyoming. And West Virginia's Concord Charlie, the fourth most accurate predictor, has never been seen by anyone except (allegedly) the President of Concord University.
Phil already saw some calls for his retirement this year from PETA, which said last week that using a live groundhog for the annual February event is cruel and offered to provide Punxsutawney Groundhog Club president Tom Dunkel a "state of the art" 3D projection of Phil if the groundhog and his family were allowed to retire to an animal sanctuary.
That offer was seemingly rejected.
Join 500,000+ readers who start their day with Quartz.
By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
