In this simplified model, depending on how you weigh the four categories, you will get different results. You might have noticed that no matter how you tweak the weights, some nominees just stand no chance of winning, and some are more likely to win than others.

The because the structure of the initial data always results in biases in models. In our case, it is the choice we made when selecting these four categories and selecting rankings instead of other numeric measures. To get a full picture of how our model favors one movie over another, we mapped out the ultimate winner by every possible combination of weights that can be assigned to the four fields. Only five of the nine nominees stand a chance of winning in our model:

Predicted winner of Oscars Best Picture Awards

Dunkirk, the predicted winner of 51% of all combinations, stands strong because of its top score on money (9) and relatively high positions for prior awards (7) and critic reviews (7).

Putting a little more weight on buzz and prior awards, you might get Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, as it strikes a balance between buzz (8) and awards (8), or The Shape of Water because of its top score for prior awards (9) and high rating on buzz (7). About 27% of all possible combinations predict these two as the winner.

Lady Bird, the critics’ favorite, is the winner in 11% of possible scenarios. Call My by Your Name, with its top score for buzz and second place by critic reviews, takes about 12% share of combinations.

One note of warning before you announce your prediction to families and friends: The Academy uses a preferential voting system to get the Best Picture winner, with voters ranking the nominees. That approach rewards collective preferences, meaning the least-disliked film will win over more niche movies with ardent fan followings. That, while not accounted in the model, could have an influence.

Correction: The article has been revised since publishing to correct a mistake in calculating the Buzz score.

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