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The Trump administration has tried to rain on America’s solar industry parade at every chance it has gotten. So far, solar is still standing.
Almost 18 gigawatts of solar came online in the first half of this year, and solar and storage accounted for 82% of all new power added to the grid. Solar will provide the largest share of generation growth through 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration, driven by surging electricity demand from data centers. The administration's campaign against renewables could still cut solar deployment by up to 21% by 2030, setting up a test of whether political hostility can overcome economic momentum and potentially leaving the country short on power for the AI ecosystem the White House wants to dominate.
The assault began in earnest in July with the One Big Beautiful Bill, Republicans’ sweeping domestic policy package that gutted investment tax credits for renewable energy projects. Since then, the Trump administration has deployed what solar industry leaders describe as a coordinated campaign to strangle the sector through regulation, trade enforcement, and bureaucratic obstruction.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum issued a memo requiring his personal approval on 69 different steps in developing a renewables project. Applications have piled up in Washington, effectively frozen. The administration has ramped up border enforcement under the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act, holding up shipments of solar cells for weeks. The Treasury has yet to issue guidance on complex Foreign Entity of Concern restrictions that leave companies guessing about which Chinese components and financing will disqualify them from remaining tax credits. Banks have pulled back from financing new projects until the compliance rules are clarified.
On Wednesday, officials canceled another $7.6 billion in clean energy funding, with solar groups already suing. This is on top of $27 billion in grants awarded during the Biden administration that they're trying to claw back. Trump has posted on Truth Social that his administration simply won't approve solar or wind projects.
Despite the onslaught, installations keep hitting records. Wood Mackenzie estimates about 40 gigawatts of solar will be installed this year. Developers are racing to complete projects before tax credits phase out completely, creating what analysts call a "rush to construction" with major buildout waves expected in 2027 and 2030 to meet new deadlines. But there's also genuine demand pulling solar forward. Utilities have committed to 99 gigawatts of new large load capacity, primarily for data centers. Solar can meet that need quickly while gas turbines take five to seven years to deliver.
The economics help explain the momentum despite the pushback. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claims adding wind and solar "makes electricity more expensive," but data from his own department contradicts him. A Politico analysis of EIA figures found that among 22 states with higher-than-average wind and solar generation, 17 had below-average electricity prices. Building new solar costs between $38 and $78 per megawatt-hour compared to $141 to $220 for Trump-favored nuclear energy, according to financial advisory firm Lazard.
With electricity grids straining to power new data centers and rates climbing across most of the country, utilities are under pressure to add capacity quickly and cheaply. Solar delivers on both counts. Even solar's traditional limitation — that it only works when the sun shines — is being addressed by rapidly improving battery storage systems that can store excess daytime solar power and deploy it during evening peak demand. Battery storage capacity has surged, helping utilities rely less on fossil fuel plants that were previously needed to handle demand peaks.
Trump has tried to bend energy markets to his preferences before. During his first term, he promised to bring back coal, rolled back environmental regulations, and stacked agencies with industry allies. Coal kept declining anyway. Plants closed because they couldn't compete economically with cheaper natural gas and renewables. Market forces proved stronger than policy.
This time the dynamic is reversed. Instead of trying to save a dying industry, Trump is trying to kill a growing one. That might prove equally futile.
Some industry analysts argue the loss of subsidies could actually strengthen solar in the long run by forcing developers to find efficiencies in areas like labor and permitting that haven't seen the dramatic cost declines that equipment has. Removing the complicated incentive structure could also simplify financing and open projects to a broader pool of investors. Wind and solar have been cheaper than natural gas without subsidies for at least a decade, and the economics may be strong enough to sustain growth even without government support — or even against its active opposition.
