In recent days, President Donald Trump and administration officials have been discussing the prospect of $2,000 checks to Americans, financed by the tariffs he has imposed around the world.
But don't count on it. The measure isn't likely to gather enough support among Republicans wary of spurring price increases if a burst of federal dollars gets pumped into the economy. The same problem hit former President Joe Biden shortly after assuming office in 2021 when he signed off on a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, which included $1,400 checks for most Americans.
A top White House aide on Tuesday opened the door to unilaterally sending the checks, but also conceded Congress has jurisdiction over designating government funds.
“We will look as hard as possible to see if there’s a way to do it without Congress because we’re circumspect about Congress wanting to stop [them],” White House deputy chief of staff James Blair told Bloomberg Government. “The law is the law. I think that the most likely outcome is, it requires an act of Congress.”
Republicans were dealt stinging defeats in several state-level elections earlier this month that brought more focus on affordability and the cost of living. That led Trump to float the direct payments, which he said could be issued sometime in the mid-2026.
It's not the first time he has endorsed government-funded checks to Americans. In February, Trump toyed with the idea of a "DOGE Dividend" that would channel payments to Americans based on the savings identified by Tesla $TSLA CEO Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.
Prior to that, Trump endorsed $2,000 checks to Americans during the pandemic in late 2020. Republicans in Congress quickly squashed that idea as a costly non-starter.
In addition to worsening inflation, Republicans are typically skeptical about growing the national debt through new social spending. But senior GOP members are warming up to the idea since Trump is pushing it. "James Blair and I will have some intense fellowship about that," Speaker Mike Johnson said on Tuesday. "We collaborate on strategy all the time, but this is an idea I think that makes sense"
The cost of the program depends on the scope, particularly at what income threshold it's set.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projected that the direct payments would carry a price tag of at least $600 billion, if they resemble the pandemic-era checks that went out five years ago.
Hurdles for the White House don't end in the legislative branch. The Supreme Court is set to issue a ruling in December that will decide whether most of Trump's global tariffs are legal. If that decision goes against Trump, the high court stops the idea in its tracks.