Researchers say Americans are overwhelmingly "footing the bill" for tariffs, as Trump brandishes them in a bid to seize Greenland
Customers walk in the parking lot outside a Costco store on December 02, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. Costco is suing the Trump administration for a refund of tariffs the company alleges were improperly imposed by President Trump. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Who's picking up the tab for President Donald Trump's tariffs? Americans, overwhelmingly. A new study released Monday by a group of researchers at the German-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that U.S. consumers paid the largest chunk of the tariffs: 96%, to be specific.
"Tariffs are framed as a tool to extract concessions from trading partners while generating revenue for the U.S. government — at no cost to American households," the analysis said. "Our research shows the opposite: American importers and consumers bear nearly all the cost."
Trump administration officials have repeatedly claimed that foreign countries and companies are the ones paying the tariffs. The president has cast them as a critical tool to negotiate new trade agreements and uphold national security. Most GOP lawmakers reluctantly support that argument, enabling Trump to expand the executive branch's authority to levy tariffs. Historically, that's been the purview of Congress.
There's a growing body of research contradicting claims that foreign firms and nations bear the brunt of tariffs, particularly in the case of the president's barrage of import taxes put in place over the past year.
The research comes as Trump threatens to impose import taxes on European nations over his desire to seize Greenland for the United States. The president has coupled tariff threats with bombastic, menacing rhetoric in an attempt to accomplish that goal, blowing up an earlier interim trade agreement with the European Union in the process.
Kiel Institute researchers reached their tariff conclusion after analyzing $4 trillion in shipment data from Jan. 2024 to Nov. 2025, a nearly two-year period that predates Trump's second term. They concluded there was a "near-complete passthrough" of the tariffs to American consumers. Foreign exporters absorbed only 4% of the tariffs.
Importers and wholesalers bear "the immediate burden" since they are obligated to pay the tariff at the border. Then they must either absorb or pass through the tariff costs to the next link in the supply chain: manufacturers and retailers, which buy the finished products. They face the same choice, and typically that's the stage in which the extra costs are offloaded onto consumers in the form of higher prices.
Researchers attributed the lack of price cuts from foreign exporters to preserve their foothold in the U.S. market to a variety of factors. Among them: alternative markets exist for their products, such as Europe and Asia. Also, double-digit tariffs that have reached or exceeded 50% are difficult to overcome through sheer price cuts alone.
The tariffs have triggered a legal fight that's landed in Supreme Court justices' hands. The high court is expected to rule in the case sometime this year, potentially setting the stage for enormous refunds to U.S. companies. For example, Costco $COST is among the largest companies that sued the Trump administration, contending the tariffs weren't legally implemented. The Supreme Court, though, has still not issued its ruling after three designated decision days this month.
The analysis said that customs revenue to the U.S. government grew by $200 billion last year. They described it as "not free money. It comes from American wallets."
"The tariffs are, in the most literal sense, an own goal," the study said. "Americans are footing the bill."
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