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America’s major airlines are hitting turbulence — not just in the skies, but in their financial outlooks.
A wave of spring earnings reports has made one thing clear: The sector is pivoting hard as tariffs, inflation, and shaky consumer demand force a rethink of 2025 expectations. Luxury travelers are still taking off, but price-sensitive flyers? Not so much.
Guidance grounded
American Airlines (AAL-0.93%) reported a Q1 adjusted loss of $0.59 per share on $12.55 billion in revenue — and yanked its full-year guidance. The culprit: “unprecedented uncertainty” around trade policy and macroeconomic conditions. Domestic leisure demand, long a core revenue stream, took a hit.
“Domestic leisure travel fell off considerably as we went into the February time frame,” CEO Robert Isom told CNBC (CMCSA+1.99%), noting that price-sensitive travelers are pulling back. Premium and corporate travel, by contrast, have held steady.
“There’s no way to predict exactly where demand is going,” Isom said, framing the outlook as too murky to quantify.
Delta signals growth stall despite profit
Delta (DAL-1.15%) also withdrew its 2025 forecast, even as it reported a $240 million profit and 6% year-over-year revenue growth. Premium and corporate demand held up — but broader growth, Delta warned, has stalled under the weight of tariffs and economic volatility.
CEO Ed Bastian said the airline is doubling down on “cost discipline and network optimization” and will “adjust capacity as needed” in response to shifting conditions.
Southwest and Alaska follow suit
Southwest Airlines (LUV-1.85%) pulled both its 2025 and 2026 guidance on Wednesday after reporting an adjusted Q1 loss of $0.13 per share. Revenue was up 10.9%, but rising labor and maintenance costs — plus booking softness — weighed on results. Southwest is now slashing Q2 capacity and slowing hiring, citing “ongoing uncertainty” tied to the U.S.-China trade war.
Alaska Air Group (ALK-1.25%), which logged a $166 million Q1 loss, similarly scrapped its outlook. Still, it flagged one bright spot: Premium revenue rose 10% year-over-year.
JetBlue may be next
JetBlue (JBLU-0.27%) has yet to report (earnings are due April 29), but the carrier already revised its Q1 capacity targets downward, blaming weather and softer demand. It hasn’t pulled full-year guidance — but investors will be watching closely.
The big picture: Visibility is fading
Taken together, the updates mark a sectorwide reset. Forecasts are being tossed overboard, and visibility is rapidly narrowing. With trade tensions spooking price-sensitive consumers and high-flying decision-makers within their ranks, airlines are trimming costs, capacity, and expectations — all while hoping for smoother skies ahead.