Vistra trades below peers despite stronger earnings visibility, with hedging and contracts shaping valuation as investors weigh 2026 guidance and long-term grow
Vistra Corp. VST has delivered strong trailing one-year performance, even after a sharp pullback over the past six months. The setup now hinges on whether improving earnings visibility and a deepening contracted base can offset normalization in retail results and a longer-dated growth timeline.
Below is how valuation, targets, guidance, and near-term catalysts line up for investors tracking what could move the stock next.
VST Shares vs. Peers: What the Multiples Say Now
VST trades at 15.92X forward 12-month earnings. That sits modestly below the Zacks Utility- Electric Power industry at 16.27X and the Zacks Utility sector at 16.64X, and at a steeper discount to the S&P 500 at 19.99X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Over the past five years, VST’s forward earnings multiple has ranged from a high of 71.25X to a low of 5.91X, with a five-year median of 12.27X. At 15.92X, the stock screens above its median but far below prior peak valuation, suggesting pricing closer to a mid-cycle range than either extreme. That matters because today’s multiple implies the market is assigning meaningful value to improved visibility, without paying the kind of premium seen during past valuation spikes.
Some of the top utilities in the space like NextEra $NEE Energy NEE, Dominion $D Energy D and The Southern Company $SO SO are currently trading at forward 12-months earnings multiple of 22.52X, 16.93X and 20.76X respectively. NEE, D and SO are all trading at a premium compared with VST and its industry.
The stated price target is $155, based on 16.72X forward 12-month earnings. The positioning implies expectations for performance that tracks the broader market rather than meaningfully leading it.
For 2026, guidance calls for Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8-$7.6 billion. Ongoing Operations Adjusted free cash flow before growth is guided to $3.925-$4.725 billion. Management’s growth drivers extend across years, with major cash flow benefits tied to items that ramp later in the decade.
Revenues missed expectations in the recent quarter but the broader takeaway is that visibility is improving as contracted and hedged positions rise, with nearly all of 2026 production hedged and most of 2027 covered.
Vistra currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here
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NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE): Free Stock Analysis Report
Southern Company (The) (SO): Free Stock Analysis Report
Dominion Energy Inc. (D): Free Stock Analysis Report
Vistra Corp. (VST): Free Stock Analysis Report
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