5 states where EU tariffs could be less painful

From Denali to the Black Hills, these places may be somewhat shielded

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Image for article titled 5 states where EU tariffs could be less painful — Photo: Sean Gallup (Getty Images)

President Trump has dubbed April 2 as “Liberation Day,” when he plans to announce a package of tariffs. So far, economists and experts are left guessing as to what tariffs will be imposed. Many speculate that the European Union will receive the brunt of the tariffs, but India and Brazil have also been mentioned.

States can be hit by tariffs in two ways. On the import side, this means bringing in items becomes more expensive, and shipping items becomes more expensive, which can dampen demand and shake local economies.

Not surprisingly, the states least impacted by tariffs on the EU (and expected reciprocal, retaliatory tariffs) are the ones that do little exporting to the EU, Albert Williams, economics professor at Nova Southeastern University, told Quartz.

But which states might escape the brunt of the expected US-EU trade war?

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Montana

“Montana does agriculture and trade mostly with other states,” Williams says.

An analysis by LendingTree of states that would be hit the worst — and least —by a trade war with the EU showed that Montana gets the least amount of its imports (2.8 percent) from the EU. So, while nowhere in the United States will be immune from a trade war with the EU, if you live in Big Sky country, you won’t bear the brunt.

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Idaho

According to a LendingTree (TREE) analysis, Idaho receives the second lowest amount of its imports from the EU, coming in at 5 percent.

So, hit the slopes at Sun Valley and feel a little protected

Still, parsing out which tariffs are less painful where is a challenging endeavor.

“It’s difficult to dissect an ‘EU Trade War’ relative to everything else going on – Mexico, Canada, China (and now them together w Japan and Korea). It’a the accumulative affects on supply chains that is the major disruptor beyond any specific element to it,” Jack Buffington, a University of Denver professor who studies supply chains, told Quartz.

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Alaska

Alaska, according to the LendingTree analysis, gets 6.6 percent of its imports from the USA and its exports, for the most part, steer clear of international borders.

Williams says that Alaska generally trades with other states. Still, regardless of where you are, Williams says, get ready for higher prices.

“From an economist’s standpoint, tariffs, regardless of origin, will increase prices for consumers, Williams says.

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Hawaii

According to LendingTree analysis only 10 percent of imports into Hawaii come from the EU.

“Hawaii trades its tourism with the other states and the Asia-Pacific countries,” Williams says. Of course, Hawaii is more exposed to trade wars with surrounding Pacific Rim countries.

But if you are attempting to hide out from a trade war with the EU, Hawaii could be as good of a place as any!

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South Dakota

According to Lending Tree, this prairie belt state gets only 13 percent of its imports from the EU, and its exports don’t go over the Atlantic much.

“South Dakota has very limited exports to the EU region, so the impact is small,” Williams says.

So, if you are looking to escape the brunt of an EU trade-war, head for the Black Hills.

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