How much cheaper will it be to hail a driverless taxi than to own a car in the future? A lot, according to the financial services firm UBS.
How much cheaper will it be to hail a driverless taxi than to own a car in the future? A lot, according to the financial services firm UBS.
UBS forecasts that taking “robotaxis”—i.e., self-driving taxis—will be half as expensive per kilometer as owning a car in the future. The firm expects to see widespread adoption of robotaxis in urban areas starting around 2030. It estimates that the typical household could save €5,000 a year (about $5,875) by switching to robotaxis in the future.
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UBS thinks the shift toward electric vehicles alone will reduce the fees robotaxi companies charge by 15%-20%. It expects the “robo” part—aka, getting rid of human drivers—to cut user costs by another 25%. UBS is also counting on competition to drive down prices.
An interesting side note in this report is that UBS remains unconvinced that “shared mobility,” i.e., taking mostly Uber $UBER and Lyft $LYFT, is cheaper than owning your own car today. That contradicts the notion, promoted by ride-hailing companies, that ride-sharing plus public transit can be a more affordable option than traditional car ownership.
UBS finds that the cost of “shared mobility” today is two to three times higher than owning a non-electric car. It modeled those estimates on a total commute of 40 kilometers, or about 25 miles, per day. The firm also notes that Uber has raised prices on its private UberX service in nearly a third of markets over the last year, based on the 600 it tracks, and lowered fares in only 3% of markets. Cities with the greatest UberX price increases include Bali, Indonesia; Cairo, Egypt; Iowa City, Iowa; and Ahmedabad, India, which all saw fare increases of 40% or more.
